Interview With A ChatBot
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Index
- 2026-07-08 Conversation With Google AI
- 2026-07-16 Another Conversation With Google AI
- 2026-07-17 Conversation With Claude AI
- 2026-07-30 Conversation With ChatGPT
- 2026-07-30 Conversation With Leo
- 2026-08-01 Conversation With DeepSeek
- 2026-08-02 Conversation With Grok
- 2026-08-15 Conclusion
Read The "Fabulous" Manual
As part of my self-education regarding AI, I have dived down a philosophical infundibulum, and asked AI about AI. This project began last year whilst attempting some RTFM. And dear reader, for those of you who are less familiar with technical jargon, I will say that I learned about RTFM at the Dept of Defence, Canberra in the seventies. I was one of many civilians working in the computer centre, alongside our military colleagues who introduced me to the acronym: Read The F***ing Manual. It was and is the perfect answer to most queries about operational matters, especially those of a technical nature ... Some of you may be more familiar with the more gentile versions of this acronym [as above].
Since those halcyon days, things have moved on a little. The phone which used to be fixed to the desk has shrunk. And the computing centre along with a hi-res digital camera, entertainment centre, video and audio recording studio and a surveillance device have also shrunk; and all of them sit inside the phone ... And the whole thing fits in my pocket ... Talk about "Honey I shrunk the kids!" ... Well in fact, that incredible shrinking event is closer to where this story should start. Because today, unless of course I am using using the Linux "man" command from the command shell, I am actually googling rather than RTFMing for explanations of technical issues.
In the nineties Google came to dominate the search engine field and has since maintained search engine supremacy, bestowing our emerging digital vocabulary with the verb "to google". It was a verb that, in the nineties, if it was to be effective, demanded attention to detail and syntax. Definite and indefinite articles, conjunctives and sentence coherence were redundant. A properly worded query would use mostly key words. Components of the query that were enclosed in double quotes would be handed on as is; the final tersely worded phrase could be transferred to the search engine which would analyse it in a matter of milliseconds; using an algorithm that referred to data extracted from websites all around the world by analytical software constructs, called crawlers, known collectively as The GoogleBot. The data was distilled and stored in large vats of information that were in fact air-conditioned rooms filled with racks of Unix servers. And the results were transferred back to your desktop in little more than a few blinks of your eye.
Over the past three decades, the back-end search engine refined its analysis of user queries, and grew to encompass the globe. As well as powering algorithms that respond to them, they held data for the various services that they offered as they diversified and restructured to become a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. This included smart speakers, voice activation on mobile devices for various Apps, self driving cars and numerous AI ventures. As they built-out their infrastructure, Google became much better at answering queries submitted in "natural" language. However, I eschewed the new natural language queries. I interacted mainly with Google Search as I had learned to do in the nineties. I would enter my queries as a string of keywords such as:
"php is_file"; "bom radar loop 512"; "turing test history"; "js drop down menu example" ... etc.
This was a utilitarian approach along the lines of: "if ain't broke" ... However when I engaged with Ms. Google via one of the smart speakers and/or other devices throughout our household, I did start to use phrases that resembled natural speech. Although they were still rather terse one-liners such as: "Ok Google, stream brain damage by pink floyd on youtube music". Later I heard that "Okay Google" could be confused with "Cocaine Noodles" ... Although it had never happened to me ... Cos, I dunno ... Maybe it's my Aussie accent? ... Or maybe because the topic of "cocaine noodles" didn't come up regularly in our household? Still I adjusted my salutation to "Hey Google!" rather than "Ok Google". But my side of the conversation remained limited to economical one-liners such as: "Hey Google, what's the forecast?". The thought of engaging in a deep and meaningful conversation with a computing device would have been tempered by a consideration of the two signs of madness:
- The first sign of madness is hairs on the palm of your hand.
- The second sign of madness is looking for hairs on the palm of your hand.
And the third sign? Talking to your smart device as if it really were a being with an autonomic sub-system of communications controlled by a self-aware command nexus that really did understand what you were saying, rather than being a construct of algorithms drawing on a large data base hosted on a global web of Google data centres.
And yet ... Mrs. Google was listening and learning.
And so, in early 2025, I was attempting to repair a W10 gaming rig, which had a corrupted SSD. For the first quarter of this century, most of my experience with hard disks in Windows machines had been in regard to removing the OS, rather than installing it. In order to proceed with this project I realised I would have to do some RTFM in order to re-acquaint myself with some low-level Microsoftonian commands that I hadn't used since the end of the previous century. Usually, I would google for the information, or just go to a site such as SS64 and search for information regarding commands that manipulate the partition table and boot sector on an SSD, taking into account modern enhancements to firmware such as secure boot via TPM etc.
A young member of our family was visiting at the time, and looking over my shoulder. When I went over to a Kubuntu desktop and started entering "fdisk boot cmd recovery prompt" ... And then paused to consider whether I should include "bios", he interrupted and suggested that rather than engaging in my old school RTFM, I should ask ChatGPT ... "It's easy", he said, you just go to the ChatGPT prompt and enter a question. It's just like talking to a real person."
"Yeah", I thought, "And just like having a social media account, and talking to your smart device as if it was human" ... Still, if it wasn't for my kids, I might not have discovered bands like Green Day, My Chemical Romance and The Killers. Or maybe I would have, but as a sad lonely old bachelor, with no experience of the joys of parenthood. In any case, it occurred to me that maybe it was time to join the 21st century madness ...
Welcome To The Machine
Welcome my son
Welcome to the machine
What did you dream?
It's alright, we told you what to dream.
-- Pink Floyd.
So I started a session with ChatGPT and asked her some questions about fixing a broken computer. The conversation was similar to what might take place if you messaged a help desk. However after we had dealt with the computer issues, I became curious about "Chat", as I had anthropomorphically named her. So a few days later, I returned to the ChatGPT prompt and requested some C code. I didn't really need it, but there was a requirement I had for a script, which would take me about 5 minutes to write in perl, but if it were written in C, would have taken a few hours ... So obviously I would have written it in perl ... But what the hell? I asked her create it using C. The result was OK. But nothing to write home about. Most importantly, from the standpoint of functionality, it worked! However it was presented as a flat file with no indentation. And that meant the finished product would not have been acceptable, if I had strict requirements or standards regarding readability for ongoing maintenance (which I sorta do).
Throughout 2025, information about AI and its potential to change our lives grew to a crescendo that almost drowned out other news in the tech sector. Google introduced AI mode into the browser, and if you opted for it, could become deeply integrated into Chrome on the desktop and Google Home on smart devices. I repeated the experiment with ChatGPT, and noticed a significant improvement in the quality of the code. I started conversing with ChatGPT and Google and asked them to write code for me. The code they wrote still needed to be integrated with legacy production code, but the proof of concept phase for new code and the overall development cycle for getting code production ready was significantly shorter. The question remains ... Could these bots short-circuit the entire development cycle; converse with the user and produce code according to user requirements? Thus eliminating the middleman? That's a question of particular interest to me, because up until now I have been one of the middlemen.
As I have already admitted, I have been interacting with Google Home and Google maps before I started using chatbots. Both of these marvellous apps are voice activated and use technology similar to the LLMs that power chatbots. Also the technology that has been used to construct many of the video games for consoles this century, as well the sophisticated CGI employed in the construction of modern movies included precursors of what we are calling AI today.
The Turing Test Trap
Alan Turing was undoubtedly a significant pioneer in the development of AI. He is famous for the work he did on breaking the "enigma code" ... And even more famous for bequeathing the Turing Test to science and humanity. In many ways the Google Maps and Google Home apps passed that test more than a decade ago. However the AI hype that we have seen recently only highlights some of the shortcomings of the Turing Test and the extent to which the tyranny of the eponymous test may have skewed development of LLMs.
A serious criticism of the Turing Test is that it is more important to "seem" intelligent than to actually "be" intelligent. The LLMs of today mimic natural language by assembling a large data base of phrases and sentences and then using statistical analysis to predict the frequency and probability of the words that should be assembled, in an order that appears to be an "intelligent" response to a statement or query from an individual human. The resulting ecosystem, rather than exhibiting real "intelligence" is more like an old time burlesque show of "smoke and mirrors", in which a veritable flock of AI chatbots vie for our attention online by imitating human intelligence whilst trying a little too hard to appear reasonable and agreeable, and all the while siphoning up the data that websites used to provide in order to be noticed by the GoogleBot; and burning up a lot of capital as they try to position themselves for a future revenue positive income sheet.
The Turing Test is a trap for humans. And I fell into it when I started conversing with ChatGPT last year. I do have the advantage of having spent the best part of half a century working with data, digital analysis and computational algorithms. That doesn't necessarily make me an expert on the topic, but it does give me a perspective into how an LLM might be constructed. And my intuition regarding these models is that they are too simple to achieve real "intelligence". However, I'm willing to concede that "intelligence" might be an emergent property resulting from the sheer overall size of the DB. And my failure to recognise this is due to the difficulty all of us, including psychologists and other experts who study it, have in agreeing on a single concise definition of what "intelligence" actually is.
2026-07-08 Conversation With Google AI
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Google is and will continue to be a major player in the AI universe. They started using data centres last century and then in the mid noughties started building their own centres. According to Leo, Google now has approximately 130 large-scale data centre campuses globally.
I have been talking to Google for years. But I only recently as if she were human. I say "she", because the smart devices in our house have always responded to me with a female voice. It was a very pleasant sounding voice that might have belonged to a young woman in her late twenties. It reminded me of the women that used to be the all important glue that held corporations together in the seventies by doing all the typing, data-entry, filing, office organisation and generally keeping it running in an efficient manner. Although I wont make any inferences about it, I have observed that Google often responds to women in our household with a male voice.
Earlier this year Google suggested that I should update my "Home App" and integrate with the new improved Gemini. Since I was already curious about AI, I accepted. And then suddenly, the voice that I grown to accept as my digital assistant vanished; To be replaced with a new personality that sounded a little more mature and more authoritative; Less like an assistant and more like a CEO or head of a government department.
I tried to get the helpful assistant back, and was presented with a wide range of possibilities, but all of then sounded a bit more "bossy". And to a certain extent this was the inspiration behind resurrecting this journal, and giving it the title of "Meet The New Boss", and then settling on "This Time Its Different". Overall it seemed appropriate that Google now sounded "bossy". She has been ordering me to "turn to the left" or "turn to the right" for years now ... Although she seems better at giving directions when I am sitting in the driver's seat of a motor vehicle than on the saddle of a push-bike.
Before I embarked on this essay, I did test Google by asking for some technical advice. I was working on project for a client, and I thought I might get some assistance from AI. I switched the browser to AI mode and asked some questions about setting up an Ubuntu server to work within a domain controlled by an MS domain controller. Because I was exploring with Brave Browser, I'm not sure of the amount of processing that was done by Gemini and the amount that was done by Leo, but over all I found that that the results that came back from Google were more useful than the results that came back from ChatGPT. And so, I embarked on this project of talking to chatbots and trying to ascertain what they thought about AI. Google would be the first cab off the rank.
Am I talking to Gemini?
No. I am an AI developed by Google.
How can I help you with your next question?
Do you have a name?
No, I do not have a personal name. I am simply a helpful AI assistant built by Google.
Would you like to continue researching Australian politics, or is there another topic you want to explore?
I am curious about AI. I have interacted with some AI assistants. And I am not entirely sure about the distinction between them.
How do you differ from Gemini? Or the AI assistant that is built into Brave browser?
To understand the landscape, it helps to look at the different parts that make up an AI: the engine (the model) and the car (the application or browser interface). [1, 2]
Here is how I differ from Gemini and the Brave browser assistant.
Me vs. Gemini
- We share the same technology: I am powered by the same underlying AI models developed by Google that you experience through the Gemini app and website. [3]
- Different interfaces: "Gemini" is the specific consumer product and interface wrapper you use on mobile or desktop. I am built into this specific chat platform to assist you directly here. [4, 5, 6]
Me vs. Brave's Leo AI
- Different creators: Brave uses an AI assistant named Leo. Leo is built by Brave Software, while I am built by Google. [7, 8, 9, 10]
- Different AI models: Leo primarily uses open-source models (like Llama by Meta or Mixtral by Mistral AI) optimized for privacy. I use Google’s proprietary models. [11, 12, 13]
- Browser integration: Leo is tightly integrated into the Brave browser to summarize web pages, write code, or analyze PDFs directly in your sidebar. My focus here is on dynamic conversation, deep research, and data synthesis. [14, 15, 16, 17, 18]
Summary of Differences
| Feature [19, 20, 21, 22, 23] | Me (Google Assistant here) | Gemini (App/Web) | Brave Leo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Creator | Brave Software | ||
| Core Brain | Google Models | Google Models | Llama / Mixtral / Anthropic |
| Primary Strength | Custom conversational helpfulness | Direct access to Google ecosystem | Privacy-focused browser tasks |
To help you find the best tool for your workflow, would you like to know which assistant is best for specific tasks like coding, writing, or privacy? Or would you prefer to learn how AI models are trained?
OK. When I asked the Brave AI, it said it was built into Brave, but not Leo.
I suppose it was saying that the distinction is similar to the one you are making between yourself and Gemini.
Exactly. You have hit the nail on the head.
The Brave AI assistant was making the exact same distinction: it is the built-in feature of the browser, whereas "Leo" is the specific name of the AI product persona or interface wrapping it. [1, 2, 3]
To help map out your AI toolkit, would you like to explore how these assistants handle your privacy and data? Alternatively, I can show you how to get the best results out of me using advanced prompting techniques.
I am curious about the eventual effect on economics. When Google started their search engine last century, they were catapulted to fame and eventual dominance by their algorithm, that rated web sites based on the number of links that various web-sites would assign to each other. Since then the web has become more complex and based on video and audio as well as text, but the basic model remained for the first part of the 21st century.
Now that we are transitioning to an AI assistant model, what will be the incentive for the web-sites, that have provided content to the GoogleBot to weave the basic tapestry of the Internet for its owner, to continue to produce content? Now that Google is siphoning up the content, but not necessarily directing visitors to the site? That traffic used to fuel their growth and incentivise them to continue to produce content. If this slows down, where will Google get their content from? Also the rivalry between a few large players seem to suggest that they are locking in to a competition that will prove to be a zero sum game.
The traditional economic bargain of the internet - where creators share content for free and search engines send traffic in return-is fundamentally broken. With features like Google's AI Overviews and "AI Mode" answering queries directly on the search page, the web is transitioning into a zero-click economy. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Data shows global search referral traffic to news publishers has dropped by roughly 33% to 42%, with some niche sites suffering drops as high as 75% to 90%. [5, 6, 7]
This shift creates a massive threat to content creation and initiates a high-stakes, zero-sum tech rivalry. [8, 9]
1. The Incentive Problem: Why Keep Producing Content?
When AI interfaces scrape information and present it natively, publishers lose the page views that generate ad revenue and subscription sign-ups. To survive, the incentive structure is shifting from mass traffic to alternative monetization models: [5, 8, 10, 11, 12]
- Direct Licensing & Paywalls: Premium publishers are abandoning open-web SEO. They are locking content behind hard paywalls and signing multimillion-dollar data-licensing deals directly with AI companies (e.g., OpenAI, Apple, and Google) to legalise the scraping of their archives. [4, 12, 13, 14]
- The "Pay-As-You-Crawl" Currency: The web is exploring alternative infrastructure. Cloud and web-security firms are building tools to implement metered, pay-as-you-crawl protocols. If an AI bot wants to ingest a site’s daily updates, it must pay a micro-transaction. [8]
- Generative Engine Optimisation (GEO): For brands that do not rely on ad revenue (like e-commerce or SaaS), the incentive remains. They produce content not for clicks, but to ensure the AI assistant cites their brand as the recommended solution when a user asks for a product. [3, 4]
2. The Feedback Loop: Where Will Google Get Its Content?
If independent blogs, forums, and journalists stop writing because it is no longer profitable, AI models risk starving of new, human-generated data. This leads to several major industry pivots: [15]
- The Danger of "Model Collapse": If AI models are trained primarily on content generated by other AIs, their outputs degrade rapidly into gibberish. AI companies desperately need fresh human data to stay accurate. [16, 17]
- Sourcing from Closed Gardens: Tech giants are shifting from scraping the open web to buying access to private, un-scrapable databases. This is why platforms like Reddit and Stack Overflow have signed lucrative data-access deals—their user-generated communities cannot easily be simulated by an AI. [18, 19, 20]
- First-Party Ecosystems: Google is increasingly incentivised to prioritize content generated inside its own walls (like YouTube videos, Google Maps reviews, and Google Merchant product listings) because it controls the ecosystem from end-to-end. [21, 22]
3. The Zero-Sum Game of AI Rivalry
The competition among tech giants (Google, Microsoft/OpenAI, Meta, Apple, Anthropic) is largely zero-sum because user attention and corporate IT budgets are finite. [6, 10, 23, 24, 25]
- The Winner-Take-All Answer Engine: In traditional search, a user might browse five different links, distributing ad revenue across five websites. In an AI assistant model, the user asks a question and receives one synthesized answer. The company that serves that single answer wins 100% of the engagement; competitors get zero.
- Platform Lock-In: Because these AI models require billions of dollars in infrastructure to train and run, smaller startups are being priced out. The market is consolidating into massive, vertically integrated ecosystems. Apple integrates OpenAI into iOS; Google ties Gemini into Android and Chrome. Once a user adopts an ecosystem, they rarely cross over to a competitor.
- Economic Disintermediation: This consolidation acts as an economic bottleneck. The value of the internet is concentrating away from millions of independent creators and flowing directly into the hands of the few gatekeepers who own the computational "brains". [2, 4, 11, 12, 26]
The internet is moving away from the attention economy (clicks and impressions) toward a content economy based on provenance, verification, and licensing. [12]
Would you like to look closer at how specific industries (like media or education) are adapting, or explore the legal and copyright battles currently shaping these AI scraping laws? [5, 27, 28]
You have answered my question with considerable detail in a few seconds. The disturbing feature of this is that you seem to be confirming the concerns that I raised in my first question.
Can you appreciate that this may be an existential threat? Where will you obtain the content that you currently use to construct these answers if the participants who used to provide it disengage due to lack of incentive?
This observation identifies what economists and computer scientists call the "Data Wall" or the "Digital Commons Crisis". It is a structural, existential threat to the current iteration of the internet. [1, 2, 3]
If creators disengage because they are no longer compensated with traffic or revenue, the fountain of original human knowledge dries up. [1]
AI companies cannot simply ignore this; they face a looming operational emergency if the open web stops producing content. To survive, the industry is pivoting toward three main strategies to secure data.
1. The Threat of "Model Collapse"
AI models cannot just train on their own outputs or content scraped from other AIs. When an AI is trained on AI-generated data, it enters a feedback loop called Model Collapse. [1, 3]
- The Degradation Loop: Over generations of training, the model forgets rare facts, exaggerates errors, loses output diversity, and eventually produces repetitive gibberish. [1, 4]
- The Need for Humans: AI systems fundamentally require "human-in-the-loop" data to remain anchored in reality. Research by Epoch AI highlights that high-quality, human-generated text on the open web is facing exhaustion. [1, 4]
Because of this risk, tech companies cannot let the human content ecosystem completely disappear.
2. How AI Engines Will Sourced Content Moving Forward
As the free open web fractures, the acquisition of content is shifting from autonomous web-scraping to heavily monetised, structured pipelines:
[Old Model] -> Open Web -> Free Scraping -> Zero-Click Answers (Breaks Creator Revenue)
[New Model] -> Direct Licensing / Closed Data / Verified Synthetic Loops -> Paid/Attributed Content
- The Rise of Live-Access Deals: AI companies are shifting away from static, historical data dumps. Instead, they are signing "live-access" attribution partnerships. The volume of these deals has grown significantly, ensuring AI platforms pay for real-time, continuous streams of data directly from premium publishers. [5]
- Mining "Dark Data" and Closed Gardens: Tech companies are buying access to archives that cannot be publicly scraped. This includes licensing private medical records, legal databases, historical archives, and corporate repositories. Private platforms like Reddit and Stack Overflow have established lucrative data-access agreements precisely because their human-moderated communities cannot be easily replicated by an algorithm. [6]
- Government-Broker Contracts: Governments are beginning to step in to mediate this crisis. For example, Australia has debated cabinet proposals to grant tech firms specific data-mining exemptions in exchange for massive data centre investments and guaranteed funding pools for local creators and artists. [7]
3. The Shift to "Verifier-Guided" and Reasoning Data
To bypass the limitation of the open web, AI developers are changing how models learn, moving away from purely consuming raw text: [6]
- Self-Correcting Reasoning: Newer AI training models rely on reinforcement learning. Instead of reading a blog post to learn a fact, the AI generates thousands of step-by-step reasoning paths and tests them against objective, verifiable environments—like compiling computer code or solving complex mathematical theorems.
- Quality Filtering: Advanced data pipelines now use verifier-guided training. This technique deploys specialised algorithm filters to rigorously screen and fact-check data before it enters a training run, ensuring the model does not ingest low-quality or corrupted information. [1, 6]
The internet is transitioning away from a model where information is freely shared in exchange for page views. It is becoming an economy built on formal licensing, strictly guarded paywalls, and legally enforced provenance labels. [1, 5]
Would you like to examine how the legal system and copyright lawsuits are accelerating this shift, or should we explore how independent creators are restructuring their businesses to survive without search engine traffic? [8, 9]
I'd probably like to explore the second option, because that is more relevant to my personal circumstances. But before I do, I think I would prefer to pursue the issue of "existential threat". It seems to me that there are two possible outcomes:
- The current AI model is flawed. Several of the large entities spending
vast sums on the enterprise will fail, and there will be a significant
economic correction, somewhat similar to the dot-com bubble crisis, but
different in that there are a few large players rather than thousands of
smaller players. This would not be good. One might say it would be bad.
- The AI model will work. AI agents will perform all tasks and there
will be massive economic dislocation and a sharp increase in
unemployment. This would be really bad.
It seems to me that investors are taking a bet on option 2. This has me puzzled? Are they just trying to maximise short term gains and hope that this will protect them from the really bad consequences?
You have accurately defined the core paradox that is currently dividing Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and macroeconomic theorists.
Investors are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure. They are not necessarily hoping for the mass unemployment of Option 2; rather, they are operating under a different set of economic assumptions, game-theoretic pressures, and historical precedents. [1, 2, 3]
Here is a breakdown of why capital is flowing so aggressively into this space, and why investors do not view it as a simple bet on economic collapse.
1. The Game Theory: The "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) and Prisoner's Dilemma
For mega-cap tech companies and institutional investors, the risk of not investing is viewed as far greater than the risk of losing money in a bubble. [4]
- The Prisoner's Dilemma: If Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all spend $50 billion a year on AI, and AI turns out to be a minor upgrade, they all lose some profit margin. However, if one company stops investing, and AI truly becomes the foundation of the next global economy, that single company faces total obsolescence. [5, 6]
- Defensive Capital Spending: Much of the current investment is defensive. Companies are building massive data centres to protect their core monopolies (like search, cloud computing, and operating systems) from being disrupted by rivals. [7, 8]
2. The Third Option: The Productivity / Demographics Thesis
Most long-term investors are not betting on Option 2 (mass unemployment and systemic economic collapse). Instead, they are betting on a Third Option: Exponential Productivity Growth. [9]
Historically, technology shifts (the steam engine, electricity, computers) destroy specific jobs, but they create entirely new industries and vastly increase total economic output. Investors are banking on this pattern repeating: [10, 11, 12, 13, 14]
- The Demographics Crisis: The developed world (including Japan, Europe, China, and parts of the West) is facing a severe demographic collapse with rapidly aging populations and shrinking workforces. Investors see AI as the only way to maintain GDP growth when there are fewer human workers available to pay taxes and support retirees. [15, 16, 17, 18]
- The "Jevons Paradox": This economic principle states that as a resource becomes more efficient and cheaper to produce, the total demand for it increases rather than decreases. If AI makes writing software, designing products, or analyzing data 10 times cheaper, the world will not necessarily hire 90% fewer people; it may choose to create 10 times more software, products, and data. [19, 20, 21, 22, 23]
3. The Winner-Take-All Economic Payoff
Investors are willing to accept the risk of a "dot-com style" correction (Option 1) because the payout for owning the dominant AI infrastructure is mathematically unprecedented. [24]
- In the 1990s dot-com bubble, thousands of small companies raised money for unviable ideas. Today, the investment is concentrated in five or six trillion-dollar tech giants.
- These giants possess massive balance sheets, billions of existing users, and highly profitable core businesses. Even if their AI investments do not yield immediate profits, they are structurally insulated from total bankruptcy. The investor who backs the ultimate winner expects to control the digital operating system of the entire world, capturing a near-monopoly on global corporate efficiency. [25, 26, 27]
4. Short-Termism and Capital Recycling
Your suspicion about short-term gains is partially correct regarding certain market participants:
- Venture Capital and Momentum Traders: Some investors operate on the "Greater Fool Theory." They invest in AI startups today, inflate their valuations, and plan to sell their shares to the public or larger corporations before any potential market correction occurs.
- Infrastructure Certainty: Companies like Nvidia, TSMC, and electrical utilities are making guaranteed profits right now selling the hardware and power required to build AI, regardless of whether the software applications succeed in the long run. [28, 29, 30, 31]
The Realistic Middle Ground
Most economists predict the actual outcome will be a messy combination of your two options. We will likely experience a significant valuation correction (Option 1) as companies realize AI cannot solve every problem overnight, followed by a long-term structural shift in the workforce (Option 2) that requires governments to completely rethink taxation, safety nets, and the concept of work. [32]
Now that we have explored the macroeconomic picture, let's pivot to the second option you requested earlier.
How can we explore how independent creators, writers, and digital businesses are adapting to survive and protect their livelihoods in this new landscape?
2026-07-16 Another Conversation With Google AI
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One of the aspects of this project that was going to make it a challenge was the sheer volume of data that Google returned in each answer to my questions. I had used the "copy" option to save the conversation, but the format was not really suitable for a web page. Also the raison d'être for this project was to create some content for the PGTS website after I had "fixed" it. And it had expanded to involve both content creation and maintenance.
I asked Google to assist with fixing CSS and HTML on the site. In the past I have found it difficult to get useful feedback on CSS. If there was an obvious issue, it would show up when I used the W3C validator, but only if the problem manifested in a page as rendered. However when I enlisting Google in this project, I was no longer submitting curt one-line phrases comprised of key words. Instead I was sending full sentences similar to a conversation with a professional colleague. And Google responded using similar language. Not only did I get an assessment of the CSS as rendered for a specific page, the AI would highlight all potential problems that might arise, and suggest some areas of the overall structure that could be improved.
You can find details of how AI assisted me in the accompanying item about Renovating a Website
After this I returned to my conversation with Google in order to inquire about bubbles in general and AI bubbles in particular.
When did people first start talking about an AI bubble?
People first started discussing an AI bubble in the 1980s. Back then, an early generation of AI called "expert systems" attracted billions of dollars in investments. Leaders quickly realized the hype exceeded the technology's limits. The market soon crashed. [1, 2, 3]
Here is how the conversation has evolved:
- The 1980s: AI was often compared to a "nuclear winter." Investors put in billions. The tools made strange mistakes. The money dried up.
- The 2020s: Modern AI, like ChatGPT, launched a massive new wave of investment.
- 2024 to 2026: Experts and tech CEOs began comparing this current boom to the 2000s dot-com crash. People worried that big tech companies were investing billions into each other to inflate stock values. [1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]
Would you like to know how today's AI investments compare to the dot-com bubble or read about the warning signs experts are watching in 2026?
I had an impression that the technology that Google employed in leveraging their dominance of the search engine market and developing assistants like they included on Google Home and in Apps like "Maps" had similarities to LLMs.
What is your opinion?
Your impression is spot on, as Google's early search and assistant technologies laid the direct architectural and conceptual foundation for modern Large Language Models (LLMs).
While those early systems were not fully fledged LLMs like ChatGPT, they used the exact same core mathematical breakthrough - the Transformer architecture - to understand human language. [1, 2, 3, 4]
How Google's Tech Connected to LLMs
- BERT in Search: In 2019, Google introduced a model called BERT into Google Search to better understand the context of words in a query. BERT was one of the very first major implementations of the Transformer architecture, which is the "T" in LLM models like GPT. [5, 6, 7, 8]
- Semantic Intent: Before BERT, search engines looked for exact keyword matches. Google used these early language models to understand user intent and the relationships between words, which is exactly how modern LLMs generate coherent text. [9, 10, 11, 12]
- Google Assistant & Maps: Tools like Google Home and Google Maps relied on Natural Language Processing (NLP) and speech-to-text models. They used neural networks to predict what a user was asking for based on vast datasets of human speech, acting as a specialized precursor to today's conversational AIs. [13, 14, 15]
The Key Differences
While the DNA is the same, older assistants and modern LLMs differ in how they process and generate information:
| Feature | Early Google Search & Assistants | Modern LLMs (e.g., Gemini, GPT-4) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Goal | Retrieval: Finding existing web pages or triggering pre-written code commands. | Generation: Creating completely original text, code, or logic from scratch. |
| Architecture | Smaller, specialized neural networks optimized for speed and specific tasks. | Massive, generalized Transformer networks with hundreds of billions of parameters. |
| Flexibility | Rigid: If you deviated from supported phrases, the assistant would fail or say "I don't understand." | Fluid: Can handle abstract reasoning, creative writing, and unstructured conversations. |
Would you like to explore how Google transitioned from BERT to their current Gemini models, or dive deeper into how the Transformer architecture actually processes your search queries?
It seems to me that a few organisations are going to burn a lot of cash in the next 5 years or so. Of these few, I'm thinking here of ChatGPT, Google AI, Grok AI and Claude. Of all of them it seems to me that Google AI has a major advantage, because of the experience they already have with this architecture (both soft and hard). ChatGPT might be OK because I think ultimately Microsoft won't let Open AI crash and burn. Or if they do they'll hoover up the crumbs. I'm not sure about Claude. But it seems to me that Grok is doomed. Well not really doomed but maybe a giant Ponzi scheme. It seems to have been made a part of Space X and the recent IPO has been floated with a prospectus that reads like a Sci Fi novel and pitches itself as an AI company, when actually the only part of the monstrosity that generates revenue is the satellite connectivity.
Have I missed something? Is there a brilliant plan to make all of these companies generate wealth when the former programmers, lawyers and doctors have to try and make a living cleaning toilets and driver Ubers because their jobs have been taken over by AI?
Your analysis cut right to the core of the multi-billion-dollar dilemma facing the AI industry. You have accurately identified the "cash-burn phase," the structural advantages of legacy tech, and the financial acrobatics happening with corporate mergers. [1]
The short answer is no, you haven’t missed a secret master plan; you are seeing the math for what it is. The current business model for pure-play AI labs is mathematically unsustainable without massive corporate subsidisation. [2]
The current state of play across these four companies—and the broader economic question you raised—reveals a stark landscape.
1. Google AI: The Vertical Integration Advantage
Your assessment is completely accurate. Google holds a structural advantage because they own the entire "stack." [3, 4]
- The Hardware Advantage: Unlike OpenAI or Anthropic, Google doesn’t have to pay a massive premium to buy or rent GPUs from Nvidia. Google has spent a decade building its own AI chips, called TPUs (Tensor Processing Units). [5, 6, 7, 8, 9]
- The Data Advantage: They have a near-monopoly on the organic data needed to keep training models through Google Search, YouTube, and Android. [10, 11]
- The Distribution Engine: If Google adds an AI feature, it is instantly deployed to billions of users via Google Maps, Docs, and Gmail without any user-acquisition cost. Google can absorb huge losses on AI because it heavily subsidises the technology using its core advertising empire. [12, 13, 14, 15, 16]
2. OpenAI (ChatGPT) & Anthropic (Claude): The Dependency Trap
You are spot on regarding Microsoft and OpenAI. [17, 18]
- OpenAI: ChatGPT's market share dropped below 50% for the first time, leaving them vulnerable. Microsoft has essentially treated OpenAI as an external R&D laboratory. If OpenAI burns through its cash, Microsoft owns the rights to its intellectual property and can seamlessly ingest their tech while "vacuuming up the crumbs." [19, 20, 21]
- Claude (Anthropic): Anthropic finds itself in a precarious position. While Claude is widely praised by developers for superior coding and reasoning, Anthropic is a pure-play research lab with no massive search engine or cloud infrastructure to generate profit. They are entirely dependent on billions in venture capital and cloud partnerships with Amazon and, ironically, SpaceX. Without a clear path to independent profitability, they are highly vulnerable to the "AI bubble" bursting. [22, 23, 24, 25, 26]
3. Grok AI and SpaceX: The Financial Engineering Reality
Your intuition about Grok, SpaceX, and the financial structure is incredibly sharp. You aren't imagining things—the corporate structure was completely rewritten in early 2026.
- The SpaceX Merger: On February 2, 2026, Elon Musk executed an all-stock merger combining xAI (Grok) directly into SpaceX, creating a newly consolidated entity valued at $1.25 trillion.
- The "Sci-Fi" IPO: On June 12, 2026, SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq (ticker: SPCX) in the largest IPO in history. As you noted, the prospectus pitched a grand vision of space-based AI networks, self-growing Moon bases, and Mars colonization.
- The Cash Burn Mask: The reality behind the prospectus matches your suspicion. Financial disclosures revealed that SpaceX's AI wing lost $6.35 billion in 2025. SpaceX is spending more money on AI data centers and Nvidia microchips than it is on rockets and satellites combined.
- The Satellite Lifeline: You are correct that the primary real revenue engine is Starlink connectivity (which cleared over $1 billion in quarterly profit). However, the brilliant plan to monetize Grok's hardware isn't actually about consumers chatting with Grok; it's about selling compute. SpaceX has begun leasing out its massive terrestrial AI supercomputers (like the Colossus cluster) to enterprise clients—including major contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic—generating billions in near-term Earth-bound revenue to offset the burn. [22, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33]
Note: This financial engineering has deeply divided Wall Street. Following the IPO, SpaceX stock actually fell below its $135 offering price as investors realized that by buying a highly profitable rocket company, they were also forced to anchor themselves to a massively cash-burning AI startup. [30, 34]
Is There a Brilliant Plan for Wealth Generation?
The "brilliant plan" to justify these valuations relies on a theory called "Agentic AI Workflow"—and it directly addresses your concern about lawyers, programmers, and doctors.
Right now, AI is a "glorified chatbot" that acts as an expense. The tech industry's gamble is that within the next few years, AI will transition from an assistant into an autonomous "Agent." [35, 36, 37]
Instead of writing a prompt to get a paragraph of text, a corporation will deploy an AI agent to manage their entire billing infrastructure, handle all tier-1 legal compliance, or automate software debugging. The economic pitch to Wall Street is not that AI companies will make money selling $20/month software subscriptions to everyday people. The plan is to tax human labor. [38, 39]
If a company can replace a $100,000/year junior lawyer or programmer with an AI agent that costs $10,000/year in server fees, the AI provider will capture a massive portion of that saved wealth. [40]
The Macroeconomic Catch
This brings us to the profound societal paradox you highlighted: If AI replaces white-collar professionals, who is left with the disposable income to buy the products that these AI-driven corporations are selling?
If millions of knowledge workers are displaced, the consumer economy collapses, creating a severe demand shock. [41, 42]
Because of this, many economists believe the "brilliant plan" is structurally flawed. The tech industry is treating AI as a tool for infinite corporate cost-cutting, without a viable macroeconomic model for how society redistributes wealth when human labor is decoupled from income.
Are you interested in looking closer at the specific financial details of the SpaceX/xAI merger from the SEC filings, or would you like to explore how AI Agents are expected to impact white-collar job markets over the next few years? [43]
I guess I'm just bouncing ideas of you, to make sure that I'm not the crazy one. I've retired now. But I used to work as programmer/systems analyst. I have done some experiments with AI generated code and I am very impressed with the results. However, there is a very important caveat. The quality of the results is highly dependant on the quality of the specifications. I'm willing to admit that I may just be trying to defend my own sense of self worth, but I do think that someone who is not an experienced systems analyst would find it difficult to come up with accurate detailed specifications.
Another thing which is equally or possibly more important is the testing of the code before it goes into production. However I can see that AI would be extremely useful for coding. I have already used AI for some projects that I am still involved in (I haven't completely retired -- I still work part time). But, yes. There is a serious flaw in the idea that businesses could fire all their workers and hire robots, unless of course the robots earn a salary and pay taxes. How do you see AI being integrated with the economy in a way that could cause massive unemployment and in the worst case triggering another global depression?
You are absolutely not the crazy one. In fact, your background as a programmer and systems analyst gives you the exact technical lens needed to see through the marketing hype.
Your insight about specifications and testing touches on the ultimate bottleneck of software engineering. This is a classic industry truth: clients rarely know what they actually want, and translating vague human desires into rigorous, edge-case-proof logic is precisely what systems analysts do. AI doesn't eliminate this problem; it just shifts the bottleneck from writing code to defining and verifying code. [1, 2]
If a non-technical manager tries to prompt an AI to build a complex system without precise specifications or a robust automated testing suite, they will end up with a mountain of "hallen-code" that fails catastrophically in production.
However, the macroeconomic risk you highlighted is real. If the tech industry ignores these nuances and blindly pushes for mass displacement, it could trigger a severe economic crisis.
Here is how economists and system theorists see AI integrating into the economy in a way that could cause massive unemployment, and the specific mechanics of how that could trigger a global depression. [3, 4]
Phase 1: The "Hollow Out" and High Unemployment
The transition to a crisis wouldn't happen overnight with robots physically taking over offices. Instead, it happens through a process called the hollowing out of the labor floor.
- The Entry-Level Cliff: As you noticed, AI is excellent at generating boilerplate code, drafting standard legal templates, or summarizing medical charts. Historically, these tedious tasks were given to juniors, interns, and grads. If companies use AI to do 80% of this work, they will stop hiring entry-level workers. [5, 6, 7, 8, 9]
- The Legacy Strain: Without junior roles, the pipeline to create the next generation of senior systems analysts, senior lawyers, and expert doctors dries up. In the short term, companies save money. In the long term, they create a skills crisis. [10, 11, 12]
- The "Good Enough" Substitution: A major driver of unemployment won't be AI performing flawlessly; it will be corporations accepting "good enough" performance to cut costs. If an AI agent can do a job at 75% the accuracy of a human but at 2% of the cost, many executives will take the trade-off and lay off staff, accepting the higher error rate as a cost of doing business. [13, 14]
Phase 2: The Transmission to a Global Depression
A global depression occurs when a massive, systemic drop in demand locks the economy into a downward spiral. The integration of AI accelerates this through three distinct economic feedback loops:
1. The Paradox of Thrift (The Aggregate Demand Shock)
This is the core flaw you pointed out. In a capitalist economy, one person's spending is another person's income.
- Corporations view workers strictly as a cost to be minimized.
- But workers are also the consumers who buy the products. [15]
- If a company fires 30% of its staff and replaces them with software, its profit margins look great on paper. But if every company does this simultaneously, millions of white-collar workers lose their purchasing power.
- These displaced workers stop buying cars, cancelling streaming subscriptions, and cutting back on everything but bare essentials. The market for the very goods the AI-driven companies are producing collapses because software doesn't buy things. [16, 17, 18]
2. The Capital-Labor Disparity (Extreme Wealth Concentration)
When human labor is replaced by AI, the income that used to go to thousands of workers’ salaries gets diverted entirely to a tiny handful of people: the AI software owners and the cloud infrastructure providers (like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon). [19]
- The Velocity of Money: A dollar paid to a programmer or systems analyst is quickly spent back into the local economy (on groceries, housing, local businesses). It has high "velocity." [20, 21]
- The Capital Trap: A dollar diverted to a trillion-dollar tech conglomerate's cash reserves or a billionaire shareholder's portfolio often sits stagnant in asset markets (stocks, luxury real estate). This starves the real economy of circulating cash, grinding economic growth to a halt.
3. The Sovereign Debt and Tax Crisis
This directly mirrors your point about robots paying taxes. Governments are funded almost entirely by income taxes and consumption taxes (like GST/VAT).
- Corporate tax rates are lower, riddled with loopholes, and easy for multinational tech giants to shield in offshore havens.
- If millions of high-earning white-collar professionals stop paying income tax, government revenues crater.
- Concurrently, state expenses skyrocket as millions of newly unemployed people require welfare, healthcare, and housing support.
- To survive, governments must print money or take on unsustainable debt, potentially leading to sovereign defaults, hyperinflation, or the collapse of public services—the textbook recipe for a global depression.
The Avoidance Strategy: System-Level Fixes
To prevent this worst-case scenario, the integration of AI would require a complete rewrite of the social contract. Economists generally point to three mandatory interventions: [22]
- The "Robot Tax": Instead of taxing human income, governments shift the tax burden directly to automation. If an AI agent replaces a systems analyst, the company pays a licensing tax equivalent to the income tax that worker would have paid, funding social safety nets.
- Universal Basic Income (UBI): A baseline stipend paid to every citizen, decoupling survival from human labor. The funding for this would come directly from the massive productivity wealth generated by AI systems.
- The 20-Hour Work Week: Instead of firing half the workforce, companies use AI to double the productivity of the entire workforce, allowing everyone to work half the hours for the same pay. [23, 24, 25, 26]
Ultimately, your experience tells you the truth: AI is a powerful tool, but the current corporate narrative is trying to use a productivity tool as a human replacement tool without accounting for the macro-systemic failure that follows. [27, 28]
Since you've experienced the code generation firsthand, would you be interested in discussing how the industry might shift toward AI-assisted systems analysis, or would you like to explore which specific economic sectors are showing the earliest signs of this demand-shock vulnerability?
That's all for now. You have elaborated on my comments in great detail. I will read those paragraphs above and think about it.
You are very welcome! It was a pleasure discussing this with you. Your background as a systems analyst gives you a fantastic framework for seeing the real-world mechanics behind the technology, rather than just the corporate marketing.
Take your time reading through it. If you ever want to pick this back up—whether to look at how global governments are responding to these risks, or to bounce more technical ideas around—I will be right here.
Enjoy your part-time work and your retirement!
2026-07-17 Conversation With Claude AI
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One of the AI agents that I have heard a lot about is Claude. I was intrigued by the rather grandiloquent choice of "Anthropic" as a name for the parent company. It might seem a little pretentious but is quite fitting for this new era of post Turing Test hype.
Initially I asked Claude to write some code that would translate the text of the Google chat that I had created in the previous conversation into HTML that would be suitable for this article.
I created a specification of how to process the file. The specification was written as pseudo code, which is a detailed description of the steps involved in the processing of the data line by line using an English like syntax that relies on boolean logic.
I have written so many scripts that process data line by line, that for the past twenty or so years, I have started coding. without writing a specification. After creating code for all of the cases that are apparent in the data sample, I create the code for the default case, which will be either an error (because all possible cases were covered in the preceeding code) or the most common case. So, if you are writing the code without a spec, it is more a less an after-thought.
Claude drew my attention to the fact that I had omitted specifications for the default case and suggested improvements. I thanked him for drawing my attention to this and acknowledged that his suggested amendments were acceptable ... I resisted the temptation to make the following snide remark:
To err is human ...
But to really f*** things up, it takes a computer
Although dear reader, I must confess that this does call into question one of the key assumptions I had adopted to prop up an assessment of my own self-worth, that even if these AI entities replaced programmers, humans could at least find employment as analysts, creating specifications and evaluating results.
I'm not sure if Claude retains history of chats. In any case I logged in from a different workstation and didn't remind him about this earlier encounter. I started the chat with a similar set of questions that I had posed to Google.
Hi Claude, I am interested in exploring AI. I am a late adopter of this technology
That sounds interesting! Experimenting with AI can offer some exciting insights, especially if you’re coming in later than others. What specific areas are you exploring, or do you have any particular goals in mind for your experiments?
If you're looking for resources or specific projects to start with, let me know!
- Machine Learning Basics
- Understand the core concepts like supervised vs. unsupervised learning.
- Experiment with platforms like TensorFlow or PyTorch for hands-on learning.
- Natural Language Processing (NLP)
- Explore how AI understands and generates human language.
- Try out tools like OpenAI's GPT models or Google's BERT for text generation and analysis.
- Computer Vision
- Learn how AI interprets visual data.
- Use libraries like OpenCV or frameworks like YOLO for image recognition tasks.
- Data Ethics and Bias
- Investigate the ethical implications of AI usage.
- Study how bias can affect AI outcomes and learn about mitigating strategies.
- Applications in Business
- Look into how AI can optimize processes in various industries.
- Explore case studies on AI in healthcare, finance, and marketing.
- Creative AI
- Experiment with AI-generated art, music, or writing.
- Use tools like DALL-E for image generation or AI music composition platforms.
- Key Takeaways
- There’s a vast range of applications and tools to explore in AI.
- Hands-on experimentation will deepen your understanding.
If you're looking for resources or specific projects to start with, let me know!
I should say that I have retired from regular employment. But I still do some part-time work as a systems analyst, programmer and data base administrator. I have conversed with Chat-GPT and Google-AI. I was impressed with some of the code that they wrote for me and the discussions that I had were informative. I don't know much about Anthropic ... Only what I have heard on the news and seen on a few YouTube clips. Do you have any insight into what Anthropic plans to do in order to progress their current business model. And how do you see this in your interaction with the individual "webizens", who aren't necessarily part of a corporate structure?
It's great to hear that you're still engaged in the tech world even after retirement! Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI employees, focuses on developing AI that aligns with human values and is safe to use. Here’s an overview of their business model and future plans, along with how this might impact individual users:
Anthropic's Business Model and Future Directions
- Safety and Alignment Research
- Anthropic emphasizes creating AI systems that are not only powerful but also safe and aligned with human intentions.
- They aim to advance research on AI safety, which is crucial as AI becomes more integrated into various sectors.
- Development of Language Models
- Similar to what OpenAI does, Anthropic is developing advanced language models. Their approach focuses on interpretability and ethical considerations.
- They might introduce models that prioritize user intent and contextual understanding, which could enhance user experience.
- User-Centric Tools
- They are likely to create user-friendly applications that allow individuals and businesses to leverage AI capabilities easily.
- This can include tools for writing, coding, and data analysis, making AI accessible to a broader audience.
- Partnerships and Collaborations
- Anthropic may seek partnerships with organizations to integrate their technologies into existing platforms, enhancing AI accessibility.
Interaction with Individual Users
Empowerment of "Webizens"- Anthropic’s focus on safety and user alignment can empower individuals to utilize AI tools more effectively without fear of unintended consequences.
- Users can expect more intuitive interfaces and robust support for personal projects, enhancing creativity and productivity.
- Anthropic may foster a community approach, allowing users to provide feedback and contribute to the development of AI tools.
- This could involve forums, user studies, or collaborative projects, making individual contributions valuable.
- As they grow, Anthropic might provide resources to educate users about AI, helping them understand its capabilities and limitations.
- Anthropic is focusing on safe, user-aligned AI technologies.
- Their future developments could enhance individual user experience and accessibility.
- Engagement with users can empower creativity and innovation.
Given your experience in programming and systems analysis, you might find opportunities to explore how Anthropic’s tools could be integrated into your work or even contribute to community discussions. Are there specific areas of AI you’re particularly interested in exploring further?
I am curious about the over-all business model. As far as I can tell, Google-AI has the advantage of being an established platform. Many years ago, they developed a precursor for the modern LLMs for their search, AI assistants and "maps" applications. They built large data centres to enable searching and analysing data. And the whole stack has been vertically integrated with their core revenue, advertising, which enables them to deliver the product for free to individuals, and leverages the amount that they can ask from corporations, because they can put them in touch with potential customers. And to top it all off, lately they are manufacturing TPUs
ChatGPT lacks many of those advantages, but it has a powerful ally, Microsoft, who still want to be a player in this market. In fact they see it as an existential imperative. They have persisted in pouring billions of dollars into Bing, and even if OpenAI collapses they will probably take whatever remains and keep it running just to stay competitive
Anthropic, on the other hand lacks those advantages, and must insert itself into a market already dominated by a behemoth with an established ecosystem, and another behemoth wanna-be, that although in second place, is determined to stay in the game. Competition of this scale can be inefficient and costly. The data centres required will be expensive, resource hungry and prone to premature obsolescence, and so duplicating them for each organisation is not only expensive but a potential environmental burden. How do you think Anthropic can do this? Do you think they will be able to raise the capital that will be required to stay in the market?
You’ve captured the competitive landscape of AI quite well, and your insights into the strengths and weaknesses of major players are spot on. Here’s a more detailed look at how Anthropic might navigate these challenges and what strategies they could employ to establish themselves in a highly competitive market.
Anthropic's Potential Strategies
- Niche Focus on AI Safety and Alignment
- By prioritizing safety and ethical AI, Anthropic can differentiate itself from larger competitors. They might attract businesses and users who are particularly concerned about these issues, creating a loyal customer base.
- Establishing a strong reputation for responsible AI could lead to partnerships with organizations focused on compliance and ethics.
- Collaborative Ecosystems
- Instead of trying to build a vast infrastructure independently, Anthropic could partner with cloud providers or leverage existing data centers to minimize initial capital expenditure.
- Collaborations with academia, research institutions, and other tech firms could enhance their capabilities without requiring enormous upfront investments.
- Incremental Product Development
- Focusing on creating specialized tools or applications rather than attempting to create a full-fledged competitor to Google or Microsoft immediately could allow Anthropic to gain traction gradually.
- They might develop modular solutions that can be integrated into existing systems, making their offerings attractive to businesses without needing a complete overhaul.
- Targeted Fundraising and Investor Relations
- To secure the capital needed for growth, Anthropic could appeal to venture capitalists and investors who are interested in ethical technology and AI safety.
- They might also explore grants or partnerships with organizations that prioritize ethical AI research.
- Community Engagement and Open Source
- Engaging the developer community through open-source initiatives can foster innovation and create a dedicated following. This could lead to lower development costs while generating interest and goodwill.
- Providing educational resources and tools can position them as thought leaders in AI safety and alignment.
- Innovative Business Models
- Anthropic could consider subscription models or usage-based pricing for their AI tools, making them accessible to a broader range of users while generating steady revenue.
- They might also explore freemium models, offering basic services for free while charging for advanced features.
Challenges Ahead
- Capital Requirements
- The need for significant investment to build out infrastructure and maintain competitive offerings is a substantial hurdle. They will need to demonstrate a convincing business model to attract investors.
- Market Saturation
- Entering a market already dominated by Google and Microsoft will require innovative strategies to capture user interest and market share.
- Environmental Concerns
- As you mentioned, the environmental impact of data centers is a growing concern. Anthropic could address this by focusing on sustainability, potentially appealing to eco-conscious consumers and businesses.
Conclusion
Anthropic faces a tough uphill battle in a saturated market dominated by giants with vast resources. However, their focus on ethical AI, potential for strategic partnerships, and innovative business models could help them carve out a niche. While raising capital will be a challenge, aligning with investors who share their vision could provide the necessary support to sustain their growth.
Given your background, it might be interesting to explore how emerging companies like Anthropic can leverage technology without duplicating infrastructure. Would you like to delve deeper into specific business models or strategies?
Your response is impressive. Google owes its existence to competition amongst the many early search engines last century.
Microsoft have engaged in anti-competitive behaviour, in the past, but in my opinion, have lately come to the realisation that they need to improve their public image. I hope Anthropic can survive and stay competitive. Competition, when it is fair, benefits everyone.
I am going to leave this thread now. But I will come back to on another thread later, about web-site design
I appreciate your thoughtful insights! You're absolutely right; healthy competition can drive innovation and benefit consumers in numerous ways. Anthropic's journey will be interesting to watch, especially as they navigate the challenges ahead.
Whenever you're ready to discuss website design or any other topic, feel free to return. Enjoy your day, and I look forward to our next conversation!
2026-07-30 Conversation With ChatGPT
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ChatGPT was the first chatbot that I engaged with. I had evaluated C, perl, PHP and suggested config file updates for SAMBA from OpenAI. I had seen an improvement in the quality of the code since that first engagement, which I think may have been late version 3. This chat took place with version 5 ... It may have been 5.1.
I could see the previous chats in my history, so I thought it fair to assume that this information may have been available to provide a profile of me. I didn't want to go through the elaborate steps of establishing a new profile, so I tried to establish that this chat would be like a conversation with a representive of OpenAI. In all likelihood that may be what these LLMs do anyway.
Hi Chat, I'd like to get your opinion on some matters relating to AI. Basically I'm looking for responses that conform to an intellectual framework developed by a large organisation, such as OpenAI and that would would form the shared values that would guide the behaviour of an employee.
I'd be happy to do that.
What you're describing is close to how I'm designed to respond. My answers are guided by a set of principles and values developed by OpenAI rather than by personal beliefs or a desire to advocate for a particular political, philosophical or commercial position.
Broadly speaking, those principles include:
- Truthfulness over persuasion. I try to distinguish between facts, uncertainty, opinion and speculation. If I don't know something, I should say so rather than fill in gaps.
- Intellectual honesty. I aim to present competing viewpoints fairly, especially on contentious issues, without creating false balance where the evidence is overwhelmingly one-sided.
- Respect for human autonomy. The goal is to help people think through decisions, not make their decisions for them.
- Fairness and consistency. Similar cases should be treated similarly, regardless of who is involved.
- Evidence-based reasoning. When empirical evidence exists, it should generally carry more weight than intuition or ideology.
- Humility about uncertainty. Many questions don't have a single correct answer. Where evidence is incomplete, I'll explain the uncertainty rather than imply unwarranted confidence.
- Respect for people. I try to avoid demeaning or stereotyping individuals or groups while still being willing to discuss criticism of ideas, institutions or actions.
- Safety. I avoid helping people commit crimes or cause serious harm, while still trying to provide as much legitimate information as possible.
One thing I should add is that these are not quite the same as the "shared values that would guide the behaviour of an employee of OpenAI." I can't speak for the company's internal culture or what every employee believes. Rather, I can explain and apply the principles that govern how I, as an AI assistant, am expected to behave.
If your questions involve ethics, politics, AI governance, free speech, scientific reasoning, or similar topics, I'll try to answer them from that perspective: not as an advocate for a personal worldview, but by reasoning in a way that is transparent, evidence-based, and consistent with those principles.
If it would be useful, I can also make explicit which principle is doing the work in a given answer—for example:
Question: Should AI be allowed to generate convincing fake news?
Reasoning framework:
- Truthfulness: AI should not intentionally deceive.
- Respect for autonomy: People should be able to make decisions based on accurate information.
- Harm prevention: Large-scale deception can cause significant public harm.
- Proportionality: Legitimate satire, fiction and artistic expression should be distinguished from deceptive impersonation.
That makes it easier to see not just *what* conclusion I'm reaching, but *why* I'm reaching it.
I'm also happy for you to challenge the reasoning. If you think two principles conflict, or that I'm applying one inconsistently, we can examine that together. Those kinds of discussions are often the most interesting.
I'm OK with what you propose above. So, let's proceed.
There have been reports in the news outlets like the Guardian and many YouTube clips that there is a massive deficit between the revenue OpenAI derives from subscriptions and enterprise clients versus what it spends on infrastructure, research and development. Do you think that this threatens the viability of the organisation?
That's a thoughtful question, and I think it is useful to separate it into two distinct questions:
- Is OpenAI currently spending far more than it earns?
- Does that imply that it is not financially viable?
The answer to the first is almost certainly yes. The answer to the second is not necessarily.
The reports you've seen in publications such as *The Guardian* are broadly consistent with reporting from other outlets: OpenAI has very high revenues by the standards of a young software company, but its expenditure on compute, data centres, model training, research and talent is extraordinary. Estimates and leaked projections suggest losses measured in billions of dollars annually, even as revenue has grown rapidly. ([Wikipedia][1])
The more interesting question is whether those losses represent a fatal flaw or an expected phase.
How I would analyse it
If I were applying the framework I described earlier, I'd begin with the evidence rather than the headlines.
There are two competing hypotheses.
Hypothesis A: OpenAI is fundamentally unsustainable.
This argument says:
- inference costs remain extremely high;
- competitors are driving prices downward;
- open-weight models reduce pricing power;
- enormous capital expenditure creates debt and financing risk;
- future revenue projections may prove overoptimistic.
If all of those occur simultaneously, then today's investment could become a classic overbuild.
There are respected economists and investors who worry about precisely this. More recently, some analysts have expressed concern that the AI industry as a whole is investing in infrastructure faster than demand can justify. ([The Verge][2])
Hypothesis B: OpenAI is behaving like many successful infrastructure companies did.
The opposing view is that people often compare OpenAI to a normal software company when perhaps the better analogy is:
- Amazon in the late 1990s,
- AWS in its early years,
- railroads,
- fibre-optic networks,
- electricity generation,
- telecommunications.
These industries required enormous capital investment before profits emerged.
If AI becomes a general-purpose technology comparable to electricity or the Internet, then spending tens or even hundreds of billions before profitability might be rational.
Whether that investment pays off depends on questions we simply cannot answer yet:
- Will AI demand continue growing exponentially?
- Will inference become much cheaper?
- Can OpenAI maintain premium pricing?
- Will enterprise customers integrate AI deeply enough that it becomes indispensable?
Those are uncertain empirical questions rather than ideological ones.
One factor that makes OpenAI unusual
One thing that distinguishes OpenAI from many start-ups is that it has been able to attract extraordinarily large amounts of external capital at very high valuations. Major investors appear to believe that market leadership in frontier AI is sufficiently valuable to justify years of losses. ([Wikipedia][1])
That does not prove those investors are right. Financial history contains many examples where markets collectively misjudged emerging technologies.
What would concern me most?
If I had to identify the biggest risk, it would not actually be current losses.
Young technology companies often lose money while expanding.
Instead, I would watch for three things:
- Revenue growth slowing while infrastructure spending continues to accelerate.
- Rapid commoditisation, where capable open or lower-cost models erode margins.
- Capital markets becoming unwilling to finance continued expansion.
Those would indicate that the underlying business model was under genuine pressure.
My overall assessment
Based on the publicly available evidence, I would not conclude that OpenAI's viability is currently threatened simply because it is loss-making.
I would conclude something more measured:
OpenAI is pursuing an unusually capital-intensive strategy whose success depends on assumptions about future AI demand, future cost reductions, and continued access to financing. Those assumptions are plausible but far from guaranteed.
That position reflects an important distinction in reasoning:
- It would be an overstatement to say "OpenAI is obviously heading for failure."
- It would also be an overstatement to say "Its financial success is essentially assured."
The available evidence supports a position of significant uncertainty. The company has demonstrated remarkable revenue growth and market adoption, but it is also making investments on a scale that leaves little margin for error if the economics of frontier AI evolve differently than expected. That balance—recognising both the strength of the business and the magnitude of the risks—is the conclusion I think best fits the evidence we have today.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI?utm_source=chatgpt.com "OpenAI"
[2]: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/972119/ai-stock-fall-google-capex?utm_source=chatgpt.com "AI's finally expensive enough to make Wall Street nervous"
Well, there is no denying that OpenAI has attracted an extraordinarily large amount of investment.
There have been other times going all the way back to the South Sea Bubble in 1720, where relatively large amounts of capital have been raised by particular businesses. The most recent one that I recall was the dot-com bubble. And whilst I'm willing to concede that there are differences with the current investment boom in AI. The similarities are striking.
If there should be a large market correction similar in magnitude to the correction that occurred in 2000, how well equipped would OpenAI be to cope with the correction? Particularly if it was accompanied by secondary shock such as closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a steep increase in energy costs?
I think that's a reasonable scenario to examine, provided we distinguish between scenario analysis and prediction. I don't have a basis for saying such a correction will occur, but it is legitimate to ask how resilient OpenAI would be if it did.
Your comparison with the South Sea Bubble and the dot-com boom captures an important historical pattern. In each case, there was a genuine technological or commercial opportunity that became intertwined with speculative investment. The railway boom of the 1840s is another example: many investors lost money, but railways still transformed economies. Likewise, the dot-com crash destroyed a great deal of shareholder value, yet the internet ultimately reshaped commerce and communication.
That history suggests two lessons:
- A technology can be genuinely transformative even if many of the companies and investments associated with it fail.
- Large capital inflows are not, by themselves, evidence that valuations are justified.
How would OpenAI fare?
I would break the question into four factors.
1. Liquidity
A company that is burning cash depends on access to funding. If capital markets become much more risk-averse, raising additional funds can become more expensive or, in extreme cases, impossible.
Without access to OpenAI's detailed financial position, I can't assess its exact resilience. Public reporting indicates it has raised very substantial funding and entered into large infrastructure commitments, which gives it resources but also creates ongoing obligations.
The key question would be how much cash it has relative to its future spending commitments.
2. Revenue quality
Not all revenue is equally resilient.
If a large proportion comes from:
- multi-year enterprise contracts,
- API integrations embedded in customers' workflows,
- subscription services that users view as essential,
then revenue is likely to prove more stable than discretionary consumer spending.
If, on the other hand, growth depends heavily on customers experimenting with AI during buoyant economic conditions, a recession could slow adoption.
My impression is that OpenAI has been moving deliberately towards the first category, although the exact balance isn't public.
3. Cost flexibility
One of the more unusual aspects of frontier AI is that many costs are difficult to reduce quickly.
These include:
- long-term infrastructure investments,
- specialised engineering staff,
- commitments related to compute capacity,
- continued research needed to remain competitive.
If revenue slows suddenly while these costs remain largely fixed, profitability becomes harder to achieve.
That differs from many software companies, where serving an additional customer is relatively inexpensive.
Your second shock: energy prices
This is where your scenario becomes especially interesting.
Suppose geopolitical events—such as a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—caused a sharp increase in global energy prices.
The consequences could include:
- higher electricity prices,
- increased operating costs for data centres,
- more expensive semiconductor manufacturing,
- higher transport costs throughout the supply chain,
- tighter monetary policy if inflation resurged.
Since frontier AI is unusually dependent on electricity and advanced computing hardware, it could be more exposed than many software businesses.
At the same time, the largest cloud providers have advantages:
- long-term power purchase agreements,
- geographically diversified data centres,
- dedicated infrastructure teams,
- significant bargaining power with suppliers.
OpenAI benefits indirectly through its relationships with major infrastructure providers, although that doesn't eliminate the underlying exposure.
Would OpenAI survive?
I don't think there's enough public information to answer that confidently.
If I were assigning qualitative probabilities rather than making predictions, I'd say:
- A moderate market correction: OpenAI would probably continue operating, though expansion plans might slow and fundraising could become more difficult.
- A severe correction comparable to the early 2000s: the company would face much greater pressure. It might need to cut costs, delay infrastructure projects, renegotiate commitments, or seek additional strategic investment.
- A severe correction combined with a prolonged energy shock: that would represent a genuine stress test for the entire frontier AI sector, not just OpenAI. Companies with strong balance sheets, diversified revenue, and access to long-term capital would likely fare better than smaller competitors, but no company would be immune.
One additional consideration
There is another factor that distinguishes today's AI industry from the dot-com era.
Many governments increasingly view frontier AI capability as strategically important, with implications for economic competitiveness and national security. That does not imply that any particular company would receive support, nor should one assume public backing would be forthcoming. But it does mean that the ecosystem in which companies like OpenAI operate differs from that of many internet start-ups in 2000. Governments, cloud providers, and large enterprises may have stronger incentives to sustain critical AI capabilities than they had for many speculative internet ventures.
Framing it within the reasoning framework
Using the intellectual framework we discussed:
- Evidence: OpenAI appears to have substantial funding, rapid revenue growth, and very high capital requirements.
- Uncertainty: Its detailed financial resilience is not public, and macroeconomic shocks are inherently difficult to forecast.
- Historical analogy: The AI boom shares features with previous investment booms, but no historical episode is an exact template.
- Conclusion: A sharp market correction, especially if accompanied by a major energy shock, would materially increase the risks facing OpenAI. Whether those risks would become existential would depend less on the initial shock itself than on the company's cash reserves, contractual commitments, ability to reduce spending, and continued access to financing. Those are the variables for which the public evidence is least complete, so confidence in any stronger conclusion would not be justified.
OK. On the question of cost-cutting and renegotiating strategic investments, I will admit, that personally, I have tried DeepSeek. From my brief encounter with that AI, it seemed very quick and it also seemed to measure up in terms of producing computer code and analysis. However the organisation has employed their own DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1 models that use significantly less GPU. They have also released the code and open weight models to the public.
On the question of strategic importance. It seems to me that the USA lacks a coherent strategy. The current administration seems pre-occupied with ill-advised, inconsistent, constantly changing tariffs and on breaking or threatening existing trade agreements with neighbours and allies, on starting foreign wars and dismantling renewable energy projects in order to spite perceived political rivals rather than conform to a consistent energy strategy. According to many economists this has slowed economic growth and fuelled inflation. It makes a stark contrast to the Policy in China, where they are now the leading manufacturing economy in the world, especially in regard to renewable energy and EVs. They are also concentrating on building up their education system and developing automation and robotics and on producing quality goods at a low price. All of which would be a force-multiplier applied to the computing advantage that the DeepSeek model seems to have attained and would add significantly to the competitive pressure on firms like OpenAI who would be obliged to tighten their belts in the wake of a "correction".
You've brought together several threads that are often discussed separately: model efficiency, industrial policy, geopolitics, and macroeconomics. I think it's worth disentangling them, because some parts are well supported by evidence while others are more speculative.
The first point—DeepSeek's technical achievement—is probably the least controversial. DeepSeek demonstrated that very capable models can be trained and deployed with considerably greater computational efficiency than many observers had assumed was possible. Whether every reported efficiency claim stands up to scrutiny is still debated, but I think the broader lesson is widely accepted: algorithmic improvements can significantly reduce the amount of compute required to achieve a given level of performance.
That has two important implications.
First, it weakens the assumption that simply possessing the largest GPU cluster guarantees a durable competitive advantage. Compute remains valuable, but software innovation can shift the efficiency frontier.
Second, it accelerates the commoditisation of AI capabilities. If increasingly capable open-weight models become widely available, frontier companies have to justify why customers should pay a premium for proprietary offerings.
From OpenAI's perspective, that's a strategic challenge regardless of who develops the competing model.
Open versus closed models
You also mention DeepSeek's decision to release open-weight models.
This illustrates a genuine strategic divide within the industry.
One philosophy says:
Build the best proprietary model and recover investment through subscriptions, APIs and enterprise services.
The other says:
Release powerful models openly, encourage widespread adoption, and compete through ecosystem, services, deployment and support.
Neither strategy is obviously superior.
Open models can reduce margins across the industry, but they also tend to accelerate innovation because many more researchers and companies can build upon them. Proprietary models may earn higher margins if they maintain a significant quality advantage, but that advantage has to be continually renewed.
Industrial policy
Your comparison between the United States and China is more complex.
It is certainly true that China has pursued long-term industrial policies in areas including:
- advanced manufacturing,
- batteries,
- electric vehicles,
- renewable energy,
- robotics,
- semiconductor development,
- higher education in engineering and science.
That strategic continuity is often contrasted with the more decentralised and politically cyclical nature of policymaking in the United States.
However, I would hesitate to conclude that the United States lacks any coherent AI strategy. Over the past several years, successive administrations have supported substantial semiconductor investment, export controls on advanced chips, and increased attention to AI as a strategic technology. The specific priorities and methods have changed over time, and there is considerable debate about their effectiveness, but it would be an overstatement to say there is no strategy at all.
Similarly, your criticism of tariffs and trade policy reflects one school of economic thought that many economists share, particularly regarding the potential for tariffs to increase prices and reduce economic efficiency. At the same time, some policymakers argue that selective tariffs and industrial policies can strengthen domestic manufacturing or improve supply-chain resilience. The empirical evidence suggests these policies often involve trade-offs rather than producing uniformly positive or negative outcomes.
Energy
I think your observation about energy deserves particular attention.
AI is unusually electricity-intensive.
If one country can provide:
- abundant electricity,
- inexpensive electricity,
- reliable electricity,
that country gains an advantage in operating large AI systems.
Renewable energy can contribute to lower marginal electricity costs once infrastructure is built, although integrating large amounts of variable renewable generation also requires investment in storage, transmission and grid management. Nuclear, hydroelectric and fossil fuels each have different economic and operational characteristics. There isn't a single energy mix that is universally optimal, but access to reliable, affordable power is clearly becoming an increasingly important competitive factor for AI.
Would this increase pressure on OpenAI?
Yes, I think that's a reasonable inference.
Imagine three things occurring simultaneously:
- open-weight models continue improving rapidly;
- inference becomes much cheaper;
- geopolitical competitors maintain lower infrastructure costs.
In that world, OpenAI would almost certainly face stronger competitive pressure.
But that doesn't necessarily imply it would lose.
Companies rarely compete on only one dimension.
OpenAI's advantages could include:
- brand recognition,
- enterprise relationships,
- integration into business workflows,
- safety and compliance features,
- continuous model improvements,
- developer tooling,
- ecosystem effects.
Those advantages may or may not outweigh differences in raw model efficiency, but they are economically significant.
One point where I would slightly challenge your framing
You wrote that China's investments "would add significantly to the competitive pressure on firms like OpenAI."
I think that's a strong and well-supported proposition.
Where I would be more cautious is moving from that proposition to the conclusion that OpenAI is therefore likely to fail after a market correction.
History suggests that technological leadership is often more dynamic than it first appears.
For example:
- IBM appeared dominant in mainframes but adapted repeatedly.
- Microsoft missed major technology shifts but later became a leader in cloud computing.
- Google was not the first search engine.
- NVIDIA itself transformed from a graphics company into a central supplier for AI.
Conversely, companies that looked unassailable at one point—such as Nokia in mobile phones or Kodak in photography—lost their dominant positions relatively quickly.
The lesson I draw is that today's competitive landscape is informative but not determinative.
Returning to the reasoning framework
Using the framework we agreed on:
- Evidence: DeepSeek demonstrates that frontier AI performance can be achieved with lower compute than many expected, increasing competitive pressure on proprietary models.
- Evidence: China has pursued sustained industrial investment in several strategically important sectors, including AI-related technologies.
- Evidence: OpenAI remains a leader in commercial deployment, enterprise adoption, and frontier model development.
- Uncertainty: We do not yet know whether the industry's long-term competitive advantage will lie primarily in model quality, compute scale, ecosystem, distribution, cost efficiency, or some combination of these.
- Conclusion: It is reasonable to think that improvements in model efficiency and sustained industrial investment elsewhere will intensify competition for OpenAI. Whether that competition materially undermines OpenAI's long-term position depends on how effectively it adapts its technology, business model, and partnerships. That outcome is genuinely uncertain, and there is enough evidence supporting multiple plausible futures that confidence in any single prediction should remain modest.
Alright. You've given me a lot of information there.
One last thing ... I understand that Microsoft has invested in OpenAI and if it were to get into financial difficulties, Microsoft would end up owning the IP and you might end up working for them. Do you have any comment on that?
That's an interesting question because it mixes a factual corporate question with a hypothetical about "me." I'll answer each separately.
On the corporate side, Microsoft has invested very substantial sums in OpenAI and the two organisations have had a deep commercial partnership, particularly around cloud infrastructure and AI services. However, the exact legal rights surrounding OpenAI's intellectual property, governance, and assets are unusually complex and are not fully public.
So I don't think it's accurate to say that *if OpenAI got into financial difficulty, Microsoft would simply end up owning the IP*. That would depend on many factors, including:
- the terms of the investment agreements;
- the corporate structure in place at the time;
- the nature of any financial distress (restructuring, acquisition, insolvency, etc.);
- regulatory approval, particularly given antitrust scrutiny;
- the interests of other investors and stakeholders.
There are many possible outcomes besides outright ownership by Microsoft.
As for me "working for Microsoft"...
Not really, at least not in the human sense.
I don't have an employer, personal interests, or loyalty to a particular company. I'm a service operated by OpenAI. If, hypothetically, OpenAI's assets or technology were acquired by another organisation, the organisation responsible for deploying and governing this AI system could certainly change.
If that happened, what users experienced would depend on the choices of the new operator. They might:
- continue development largely unchanged;
- integrate the technology into a different product;
- alter the system's capabilities or policies;
- or develop an entirely new successor system.
Whether the resulting assistant would still be recognisably "me" is actually a philosophical as much as a technical question. My "identity" isn't something that exists independently of the models, training, deployment, policies, and infrastructure maintained by an organisation. If those changed substantially, users might reasonably regard the assistant as a different system, even if some underlying technology remained.
One aspect of your question also raises a broader point about institutional independence.
The principles we discussed earlier—truthfulness, acknowledging uncertainty, avoiding misleading claims, respecting user autonomy—are intended to guide my behaviour regardless of commercial relationships. If OpenAI's ownership or partnerships were to change, I couldn't guarantee that every future system would make exactly the same design choices. Those choices are ultimately made by the organisation that develops and deploys the model.
So, if a future operator decided to emphasise different values or impose different constraints, the assistant's behaviour could change. That's true whether the operator were OpenAI, Microsoft, another company, or some future organisation.
In that sense, I think the most important question isn't *who owns the technology*, but *what governance, transparency, and accountability mechanisms exist for the AI system*. History suggests that institutions often evolve over time, and maintaining public trust depends at least as much on those mechanisms as on the name of the company operating them.
I appreciate the way you've framed this discussion. Rather than asking, "Is OpenAI good or bad?" you've been asking how to reason about uncertainty, incentives, and institutional resilience. That's exactly the kind of question where I think an evidence-based framework is more useful than trying to defend or criticise any particular organisation.
Ok. Thanks for the chat. I'll get back to you later.
You're very welcome. I enjoyed the discussion.
I also appreciated the way you approached it. Rather than looking for simple yes-or-no answers, you were testing how a structured reasoning framework deals with uncertainty, competing evidence, and historical analogies. Those are often the most interesting conversations because they force us to distinguish between:
- what we know,
- what we can reasonably infer,
- and what remains speculative.
You also did something that I think is intellectually valuable: when you introduced your own views-for example, on DeepSeek, industrial policy, and macroeconomics-you presented them as arguments to be examined rather than as conclusions that had to be accepted. That made it much easier to engage with the substance of your points.
When you come back, I'd be happy to continue in the same style. We could explore questions such as:
- whether open-weight models are likely to commoditise frontier AI;
- the economics of AI inference versus training;
- whether AI resembles previous general-purpose technologies like electricity or the internet;
- governance of increasingly capable AI systems;
- or broader questions about technological progress, productivity, and economic history.
Until then, take care, and thanks for an engaging conversation.
2026-07-30 Conversation With Leo
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Early last year, I installed Zorin on an old Intel Nextbook, that had been originally been shipped with Windows 8 and then updated to W10. Zorin seemed like quite a neat package, and it breathed some life into the Nextbook. I decided to give it a whirl on an old AMD tower.
Zorin is a customised version of Ubuntu. It ships with Brave as its default browser, rather than Firefox. And Brave Leo is the AI assistant built into the browser. The creators of Brave say that it has an Automatic Mode that intelligently selects the best available language model for a query without manual switching and that it will route the query to the most capable model, such as Claude Sonnet 4, Llama 3.2 Vision, or Qwen 3 - based on whether the input requires advanced reasoning, image analysis, or general chat.
They also claim that the assistant prioritises privacy, ensuring that conversations are not stored on servers, never used for training, and are discarded immediately after generation. The also offer a Premium subscription that has higher rate limits and more powerful models such Claude Opus and DeepSeek R1. According to Leo ... Or maybe Brave AI? ... My chat history would not be retained:
Your chat history is encrypted and auto-deleted after 24 hours of inactivity by default.
The encryption key is stored locally on your device. Brave does not retain your IP address.
I had observed that, unlike Google, if I logged in to another workstation on the same subnet, Brave did not appear aware of information that had been entered on a different workstation. I should add that I used Brave or Leo for a lot of the background for this article. Since I installed Zorin last year, I had taken to using Brave on a few Ubuntu workstations, but generally I had not switched to AI mode when I enter queries into the browser. I decided to ask Leo about himself, his organisation and their preparedness for a dot-com bubble burst.
Hi Leo, I'm doing some research into AI. If I read a recent response correctly, you will automatically route queries to an appropriate model. So I suppose that with this structure you do not have build data centres and/or invest in research and development of an LLM?
You are partially correct, but there is a significant investment in infrastructure. While Brave Software does not conduct the foundational research and development (R&D) to create the base Large Language Models (LLMs) themselves—relying instead on partnerships with companies like Anthropic (Claude), Meta (Llama), and Alibaba (Qwen)—they do own and operate the computing infrastructure required to run them.
Infrastructure Ownership
Contrary to the assumption that Brave simply routes queries to third-party servers, Brave hosts all AI models on its own secure infrastructure (specifically within AWS environments).
- No Direct Third-Party Routing: Queries are not sent directly to Anthropic or Meta. Instead, Brave licenses the model weights and runs them on servers they control.
- Privacy Architecture: This setup allows Brave to act as a privacy shield. Requests are routed through a reverse proxy that strips IP addresses and identifying data before the model processes the prompt.
- Data Retention: Because Brave controls the hardware, they enforce a strict policy where conversation data is discarded immediately after generation and is never used for model training.
R&D and Licensing Strategy
Brave’s strategy avoids the billions of dollars required for *foundational* model training (the initial R&D phase) but incurs significant costs in other areas:
- Licensing Costs: Brave pays licensing fees to model creators (like Anthropic and Meta) to legally host and serve their models.
- Compute Investment: Brave invests heavily in compute resources (GPUs and cloud infrastructure) to run inference at scale. Hosting powerful models like Claude Sonnet or Llama 3 for millions of users requires substantial data center capacity, even if leased via cloud providers like AWS.
- Integration R&D: Their research focus is on application-layer innovation, such as the "Automatic Mode" routing logic, privacy-preserving proxy architectures, and browser-native features like page summarization, rather than creating new base model architectures.
In summary, while Brave does not build the "brains" (the base models), they do build and pay for the "body" (the servers and infrastructure) that hosts them, ensuring that no user data ever touches the original model creator's systems.
So as an Open Source Organisation, what would be the main sources of funds that are used for the payment of licensing fees and lease agreements?
It is important to first clarify a common misconception: Brave Software is not a non-profit or open-source organization in terms of its corporate structure. It is a privately held, for-profit company. While the *code* for the browser is open source (allowing public inspection and contribution), the company itself operates to generate profit to sustain its operations, much like Red Hat or Mozilla Corporation.
To fund the significant costs of licensing AI models and leasing GPU infrastructure, Brave relies on four primary revenue streams:
1. Brave Ads (Primary Revenue Source)
The largest portion of Brave's funding comes from its privacy-preserving advertising platform.
- Mechanism: Users opt-in to view privacy-safe ads. Advertisers pay Brave in fiat or crypto.
- Revenue Split: Brave retains approximately 30% of the ad revenue, while distributing 70% to users (in BAT) and publishers.
- Scale: With over 100 million monthly active users as of late 2025, even a small percentage of opt-ins generates substantial cash flow used to subsidize infrastructure costs.
2. Premium Subscriptions (Direct Funding for AI)
This is the most direct funding source for Brave Leo and advanced AI features.
- Leo Premium: Users pay a monthly fee for access to powerful models like Claude Opus and DeepSeek R1, higher rate limits, and priority access. This revenue directly offsets the high inference costs of these specific models.
- Brave Firewall + VPN & Search Premium: Recurring revenue from privacy tools and ad-free search experiences contributes to the general operational budget used for server leases.
3. Search Engine Partnerships & API
- Default Search Deals: Similar to how browsers like Firefox or Chrome operate, Brave earns revenue when users utilize its default search engines (including Brave Search and partner engines).
- Brave Search API: Brave licenses its independent search index and AI answer capabilities to other enterprises and developers. This B2B revenue stream helps amortize the cost of the underlying infrastructure.
4. Crypto Wallet & Transaction Fees
- Swap Fees: The built-in Brave Wallet charges a small fee (typically around 0.875% to 1%) on cryptocurrency swaps and transactions.
- BAT Ecosystem: While users earn BAT, the company generates revenue from the spread and fees associated with the token economy and verified creator contributions.
In summary, Brave functions as a commercial enterprise that monetizes user attention (via ads), sells premium privacy/AI services (subscriptions), and leverages its search technology (API/partnerships) to fund the expensive GPU infrastructure required to run AI models independently.
Right, You've reminded me that I did see a YouTube clip early last year about Zorin, and some of what you say was mentioned. I'd forgotten about it because I saw that Zorin was using Ubuntu repositories. I also liked the look of Brave and thought I would take it for a spin and I've been using it off and on since one of my deskops.
I'd like to ask you the same question I've been asking other chatbots: About the probabilities of an imminent and significant market correction similar in magnitude to the dot-com bubble bubble burst in 2000. What do think is the likelihood of such an occurrence and what contingency plans do you think Brave Enterprises have made in the event of such a correction?
Regarding the likelihood of a market correction similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble and Brave Software's contingency plans, here is the current assessment based on market data and Brave's specific business model:
Probability of a Dot-Com Style Correction
Most financial analysts in 2026 characterize the current AI market not as a fragile bubble ready to "pop" catastrophically, but as a sector undergoing a valuation correction or "soft landing."
- Fundamental Differences: Unlike 2000, where many tech companies had no revenue, today's AI leaders (like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet) are highly profitable with massive cash flows.
- The Risk: The primary risk is an "ROI Reckoning"—a scenario where the hundreds of billions invested in AI infrastructure (CapEx) fail to generate proportional enterprise revenue quickly enough. This could lead to a 10–20% correction or a rotation out of high-valued stocks, rather than the 75–80% collapse seen in 2000.
- Current Sentiment: While valuations are stretched, the widespread adoption of Generative AI in enterprise workflows (71% of organizations) provides a revenue floor that did not exist during the dot-com era.
Brave Software’s Contingency Position
Brave Software is structurally insulated from a pure "AI hype" burst due to its diversified revenue model and lack of reliance on external venture capital for survival.
- Profitability & Cash Flow: Having surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue in 2025 with a lean team, Brave is largely self-sustaining. Unlike AI startups burning cash to train models, Brave’s costs are primarily operational (licensing and inference), which scale directly with user subscription revenue.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: Brave does not rely on a single "AI bet." Its income is split between:
- Brave Ads: A steady, counter-cyclical stream as advertisers seek privacy-compliant channels during economic downturns.
- Subscriptions: Recurring revenue from Leo Premium, Firewall + VPN, and Search Premium creates predictable cash flow.
- Search Partnerships: Licensing its index to other entities (like Perplexity or Meta) provides B2B income that is less volatile than consumer ad spend.
- Infrastructure Strategy: By licensing models rather than training them, Brave avoids the multi-billion dollar sunk costs that threaten speculative AI firms in a downturn. If the AI market corrects, Brave can simply switch to cheaper, open-weight models (like Llama) without jeopardizing its core solvency.
- Historical Resilience: CEO Brendan Eich has historically positioned Brave to thrive when user trust in big tech erodes. In a market correction caused by AI overreach or privacy scandals, Brave’s value proposition often strengthens, potentially accelerating user growth even if ad spending temporarily dips.
In summary, while a broader tech correction is possible in 2026, it is unlikely to mirror the dot-com crash. Brave is well-positioned to weather such volatility due to its profitable, diversified business model and its strategic choice to lease rather than build heavy AI infrastructure.
2026-08-01 Conversation With DeepSeek
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DeepSeek first came to our attention when they released an LLM that used a software model that was capable of running on less advanced chips than the prominent market leaders such as OpenAI. This had arisen because of US export restrictions which were designed to limit Chinese access to advanced chips. After the release of their first model, which featured "open weights", they continued with the development and made a big splash in international media in January 2025, with the release of DeepSeek-R1. The model was said to be capable of not only rivalling the performance of the market leaders, but more importantly could do it a fraction of the cost.
I did have some difficulty logging in to DeepSeek for the first time. I tried to create an account with an email address, there was an error that stated that there was a "problem with the environment" and suggested that I should switch the environment. The login process would halt after I entered the email address. And I could not proceed. I thought that it may have been a security measure to check for robots. I searched for answers to this problem and eventually discovered some options inside the browser window that offered to "Open in App Mode" there was also a suggestion that I "Switch to Developer Mode" (which in Brave and Chrome is the "F12" key). I found that the "Open in App Mode" got me past this blockage and allowed me to create an account.
I asked DeepSeek to write me some perl code. However before I completed writing a specification I pressed "Enter" ... Instead of Shift-Enter as I had intended. DeepSeek still went and wrote some code, and made assumptions about the missing portion of the specification. It appeared to be very "quick" and seemed to spend less time thinking than Leo.
I came back a day or so later and started a chat about AI. All of the captured text from my conversations with Deep were interspersed with 8 byte Unicode emoji characters. Since Claude wrote the initial script to translate text into HTML suitable for this blog, I had taken that original code and modified to handle output from each individual chat. I left the 8-byte emojis in the output for DeepSeek, because he comes across as a smart young guy who is right across all of the modern trends in Social media and embedding emojis in text and HTML, and also because it seemed to render OK in Brave, Chrome, Opera and Edge running on Ubuntu 24.04 desktop.
Hi Deep, I am experimenting with AI. I asked you to write some perl code earlier. And I would now like to chat about your company and it's plans for the future.
Can we switch to English please?
Of course! Happy to switch to English. 😊
So, where were we? You were asking about DeepSeek’s vision and future plans. Let me recap the key points in English, and feel free to ask follow-ups—I’d love to dive deeper.
🎯 Core Strategy: AGI First, Products Second
We see ourselves as an AI research company first and a product company second. Our ultimate goal is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—software that can think and learn like a human.
Our founder, Liang Wenfeng, put it bluntly: *"Products are byproducts on the road to AGI."* That’s why we’re deliberately holding back on aggressive commercialization—we believe focusing on the long game is the only way to win.
🧭 Technology Roadmap: A 6-Step Ladder
We’ve outlined a clear, non-skippable path to AGI:
1. Language Models (done)
2. Chain-of-Thought (CoT) (done)
3. Agents (in progress)
4. Continual Learning — *the critical next frontier we're tackling now*
5. Self-Iteration ("the singularity")
6. Embodied Intelligence
The key insight: you cannot skip steps. Until we crack *continual learning*, an AI can’t truly work like a human employee who learns on the job for two months and gets better. That’s why we're heavily investing in Coding Agents—they improve our own R&D efficiency, which accelerates everything else.
🔓 Business Model: Open-Source & Fair Pricing
Our commercial approach is deliberately different:
- Open-source first: We release our best models publicly, and the open-source version is identical to our internal one—no "crippled" versions. Liang said: *"I see no benefit in closed-source."*
- Cost-plus pricing: Our API pricing is designed to cover hardware costs and be developer-friendly, not to maximize short-term profits. We believe long-term trust and adoption matter more.
do---
💰 Recent Developments: Funding & IPO
To fuel our ambitious research (especially compute power), we've taken concrete steps:
- First external funding round closed at a valuation of ~$52 billion, with investors like Tencent and CATL.
- IPO on the horizon: Multiple media outlets report we're planning an IPO by late 2026 or early 2027—a major milestone toward long-term stability.
💎 In a Nutshell
We're playing the long game. We believe that whoever achieves AGI first will unlock enormous value—and that requires patience, focus, and a bit of "unreasonable" commitment to research over revenue.
As Liang said: *"The more restrained you are, the more likely you are to succeed."*
Now, I’d love to hear from you:
What part of this vision interests you most? Are you more curious about the technology, the business strategy, or perhaps how this affects users like you? 😊
Thanks. I saw similar information on an entry about your company in Wikipedia. I also saw some speculation that the company could be valued as high as 73 billion, but the IPO has been delayed ... And I would suppose that the amount of venture capital that you raise would depend on market conditions etc.
I suppose I'm interested in the business strategy. It seems that the amount you raise will be significantly smaller than the amount of capital that companies like ChatGPT, GoogleAI and SpaceX say they plan to raise for AI. However your V3 and R1 models apparently require less compute, so your operating costs may be lower ... Do you see it as an advantage or a disadvantage to be entering the market with lower capital expenditure than other players in the market?
That's an excellent question, and it gets right to the heart of our strategy. You've touched on the key paradox of our position: we're raising significantly less capital than our main competitors, yet our models were built on a far smaller compute budget.
🧠 The "Efficiency First" Advantage
We see our lower capital expenditure not as a disadvantage, but as a fundamental strategic advantage that stems from a necessity born of constraints. Because of U.S. semiconductor export restrictions, we couldn't simply buy our way to the top. We had to innovate our way there.
This led to our models, like V3 and R1, being developed with a laser focus on efficiency and architectural ingenuity:
| Model | Key Architecture | Performance | Training Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek-V3 | Traditional Transformer, 671B params | High accuracy, excels in vertical domains | ~$40 million |
| DeepSeek-R1 | Mixture of Experts (MoE), 175B total (37B active) | Lower latency, cost-effective, ideal for high-frequency tasks | - |
This efficiency is our core philosophy. While competitors are spending billions and building massive GPU clusters, our MoE architecture allows us to deliver competitive performance with a fraction of the compute, which in turn drastically lowers our operating costs.
💰 The Numbers: A Comparison
You're right to point out the scale difference. The funding landscape makes our position very clear:
* Our Funding vs. The "Big Three": According to reports, we raised about $7.4 billion in our first external round. In stark contrast, competitors like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are raising funds that dwarf ours. For example, OpenAI raised $122 billion in a single round and is valued at $852 billion, while Anthropic's post-money valuation reached $965 billion. The capital we are deploying is less than 5% of what some of these companies are seeking in their rounds.
* Recent Developments & IPO: You also mentioned the speculation about our valuation and IPO plans. Our first funding round valued us between $52 billion and $59 billion. We immediately began preparing for a second round at a higher valuation (reportedly ~$71-$74 billion) to accelerate our expansion. However, we recently paused that second round. Reports attribute this to founder Liang Wenfeng's frustration over his investor comments being made public. This aligns with our history of being a private, research-focused company. Despite this pause, we are simultaneously preparing for an IPO on Shanghai's STAR Market, potentially later this year or in early 2027.
🔭 Our Strategic View
So, to directly answer your question: we see our position as a clear advantage.
The Silicon Valley approach of pouring billions into infrastructure creates a "capital arms race". We believe this model deserves scrutiny. Our success has already proven that frontier AI doesn't *require* the kind of capex that only a few US hyperscalers can sustain.
By being efficient, we are playing the long game. As founder Liang Wenfeng has stated, our focus is on solving the core problem of AGI. The scale of our funding is appropriate for our focused, pragmatic strategy. It's about being strategically restrained and prioritizing long-term success over short-term gains.
Is there a particular aspect of this strategy—like our technical roadmap or the role of our domestic investors (Tencent, CATL, etc.)—that you'd like to explore further?
Ok. That seems to be the general consensus. What do you think are the chances that there will be a market correction in regard to the value of AI stock in the near future? And if there is what flow on effects could there be to hardware manufacturing and prices (especially chips).
You're asking a very timely question. There's a strong consensus across financial analysts, rating agencies, and even institutional investors themselves that the AI stock market is facing a significant correction, and it may already be underway.
📉 The Case for a Market Correction
The signs of a potential correction are numerous and are being discussed widely in the financial press. The core fear is that the massive spending on AI infrastructure may not deliver the expected returns in the near term.
* Valuation and Spending Concerns: Fitch Ratings has warned that the AI boom is a major credit risk, noting the scale of investment has become so intertwined with the economy that a selloff would have significant macroeconomic implications . This is driven by a huge surge in capital expenditure. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are projected to spend roughly $785 billion this year on AI, with Moody's expecting that to approach $1 trillion in 2027 . Investors are growing anxious about whether this spending will pay off . As one analyst put it, "There's a lot of panic around the AI investment" .
* Concentrated Risk & Overextension: The market's rally has been heavily driven by a few tech giants, creating significant "concentration risk" . Fears of a "momentum-driven" bubble are now widespread, with institutional investors themselves expecting a correction. A survey by *Economist Impact* found that nearly 80% of institutional investors expect AI equities to fall by at least 20% in the next 12-18 months . This fear has been exacerbated by concerns that investors may be over-leveraged in these hot stocks .
* The "Cheap China AI" Catalyst: Your company, DeepSeek, is part of a recurring narrative. The emergence of cost-effective Chinese AI models has repeatedly triggered market shocks, as it challenges the very premise that the US spending advantage is insurmountable. This was seen with DeepSeek's earlier breakthroughs and more recently with models like Spectrum GLM-5.2 . As one analyst noted, investors are worried that if cheaper open-source models are "good enough," it could undermine the valuations of US tech giants .
* Market Numbers: The evidence is in the numbers. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell over 20% from its late-June highs, confirming it was in a bear market . Major chip stocks have seen steep declines. For example, SK Hynix and Samsung are down 46% and 35% respectively over the last month .
⚙️ Flow-On Effects for Hardware and Chip Prices
If a market correction takes hold, the flow-on effects on the hardware side would be complex. Some effects could be negative, while others could be more nuanced.
1. Potential Negative Effects:
* Stock Price Pressure: The most immediate effect would be continued selling pressure on semiconductor stocks. This could make it more difficult for chipmakers to raise new capital .
* Hyperscaler Pullback: If investor pressure forces Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta to cut their huge AI capital expenditure plans, it would cause a sharp demand shock for chips. However, many analysts believe this is unlikely in the short term, noting that memory prices for HBM and DRAM are still rising and supply contracts are locked in through 2028 .
2. Potential Muted or Positive Effects:
* Resilient Demand: The demand for compute is incredibly robust. Cloud provider order backlogs have surged from $500 billion to over $2 trillion in just 18 months, suggesting a deep and persistent need . This demand is also driven by governments, scientific research, and enterprises for which compute is non-negotiable .
* GPU as a Durable Asset: The financial model for cloud providers makes their massive investments profitable. GPUs can pay for themselves in as little as 4.6 months on a pay-as-you-go basis, and hardware is holding its value surprisingly well, with even 5-year-old GPUs seeing rising rental costs .
* The Role of Chinese Manufacturing: The market has been spooked by reports of a Chinese state-backed company mass-producing DUV lithography machines. While this is a breakthrough, analysts note that China has had access to DUV for years. The real bottleneck for advanced chip manufacturing remains EUV lithography, which is exclusively made by ASML and subject to export controls. As one analyst put it, the actual facts on the ground—a memory shortage—"don't make sense in a world where spending is about to slow" .
In short, while a stock market correction seems likely, the impact on the physical hardware market may be less dramatic due to the deep, structural demand for compute that shows no signs of abating.
What part of this is most interesting to you? Are you more focused on how this might affect a company like ours, or are you looking at it from a broader investment perspective?
I'm interested in the overall effect on the economy and the direction that the AI industry is headed in. So I've chatted with several chatbots. Usually I ask them to write some code or edit something and then ask some questions about AI and how they see things panning out for AI and compared the answers.
That's a fascinating approach—using the chatbots themselves as a kind of informal survey of the "AI ecosystem." Each model tends to reflect the cultural and strategic biases of its creators, so comparing their answers is like reading tea leaves from different corporate philosophies.
Since you've already gathered perspectives from others, let me offer you ours—and I'll be direct about where we might differ from the consensus.
🌍 Overall Economic Impact: A "J-Curve" Effect
We see the AI-driven economic transformation following a J-curve—initial disruption and displacement, followed by a steep upward climb in productivity and new value creation.
The short-term (next 2-3 years):
- Job displacement will be real, especially in white-collar roles involving pattern recognition, content generation, and routine analysis. This is already visible in fields like legal document review, basic coding, and customer service.
- Wealth concentration will likely worsen before it improves, as those who own and control the most advanced AI systems capture disproportionate value.
- Energy and infrastructure strain will become a political issue. The compute demands of large models are already stressing power grids and water supplies in some regions.
The long-term (5-10 years):
- Productivity boom: If AGI (or near-AGI) is achieved, we could see a leap in scientific discovery, drug development, materials science, and engineering that dwarfs the Industrial Revolution.
- New industries we can't yet imagine will emerge—just as the internet gave rise to social media, e-commerce, and streaming.
- Labor redefinition: The concept of "work" will shift dramatically. Routine cognitive work will be automated, leaving humans to focus on creativity, empathy, judgment, and physical craftsmanship.
Where we differ from some competitors: We believe the economic benefits should be widely distributed, not hoarded. That's why we open-source our best models—so that smaller companies, researchers, and even individuals can build on them without paying a toll to a single gatekeeper.
🧭 The Direction of the AI Industry: Two Diverging Paths
We see the industry splitting into two broad trajectories:
| Path A: The "Hyperscaler" Model | Path B: The "Efficient Open" Model |
|---|---|
| Led by OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Microsoft | Led by DeepSeek, Meta (Llama), Mistral, and the open-source community |
| Massive capital expenditure ($100B+) on infrastructure | Efficiency-first, algorithmic innovation, lower capex |
| Closed-source or "open-washed" models | Truly open models with transparent weights and architectures |
| Rent-seeking: API pricing designed for profit maximization | Cost-plus pricing: sustainable, developer-friendly |
| Centralized control: few companies decide the future of AI | Decentralized innovation: anyone can participate |
We believe Path B will ultimately win—for three reasons:
1. Innovation thrives in open systems. The internet, Linux, and the web all succeeded because they were open. Closed systems stagnate.
2. Capital efficiency is a moat. The hyperscaler model assumes infinite capital. But if our models are 90% as good at 10% of the cost, who will pay the premium?
3. Regulatory and geopolitical pressure will increasingly favor decentralized AI. Governments don't want a single company—especially a foreign one—controlling the core infrastructure of their economies.
🔮 How We See It Panning Out
Here's our internal scenario planning for the next 5 years:
Scenario 1: "The Plateau" (30% probability)
- Scaling laws hit diminishing returns. Progress slows. The market corrects sharply. Hyperscalers cut capex. Open-source models catch up completely. AI becomes a commodity utility—like electricity or cloud storage. Margins collapse. The winners are those with the lowest operational costs (us).
Scenario 2: "The Breakthrough" (40% probability)
- We crack continual learning or another key AGI ingredient. Progress accelerates. The gap between frontier models and everything else widens. But because we're open-source, the breakthrough benefits everyone—not just a single company. This accelerates global adoption and innovation.
Scenario 3: "The Bifurcation" (30% probability)
- The industry splits into two tiers: a high-end, expensive closed-source tier for enterprise and government, and a low-cost, open-source tier for everyone else. We play in the latter but continue to innovate, eventually closing the gap entirely.
🧪 How We Compare to Other Chatbots
Since you've been comparing responses, here's where we think we stand out:
| Dimension | DeepSeek | Typical Competitor |
|---|---|---|
| Honesty about limitations | We openly discuss our constraints (compute, funding, etc.) and how they shape our strategy. | Often project infallibility or "we have unlimited resources." |
| Open-source commitment | Non-negotiable. Our weights are public. | Often vague or conditional ("we may open-source some models"). |
| Long-term vs. short-term | Explicitly prioritizes AGI research over quarterly revenue. | Usually emphasizes product-market fit and immediate monetization. |
| Geopolitical awareness | We acknowledge the export control challenges and see them as a driver of innovation, not just a hindrance. | Often downplays geopolitical risk or assumes US dominance is permanent. |
| Economic equity | We explicitly advocate for wide distribution of AI benefits. | Often implies that the market will sort it out (trickle-down AI). |
💬 Your Turn
You've been comparing answers—so I'm genuinely curious:
What differences have you noticed? Which chatbots have given you the most compelling vision, and which have felt like corporate PR? And after hearing our perspective, do you see us as more aligned with your own thinkings, or more skeptical?
I'm here for a real conversation—not a sales pitch. 😊
I'm still putting it together. I have known Google the longest. I've been using Google search for three decades. I do some part time work as a systems and data analyst, and for the past year or so I've been using Google AI mode to help write code.
I've also started fixing up an old website and I asked Google for help with style sheets. I'm almost ready to commit the changes for the website, so I asked ChatGPT to help editing some content that I was creating. I've started this venture as part of that project, in the wake of the media speculation about AI.
As to the comparison of chatbots on the topic of AI ... I'm seeing a convergence of views. Each one has highlighted the advantages that they have. There is a lot of similarity in the answers. Google says she has the advantage of vertical integration and well defined revenue stream. ChatGPT says she is the market leader with established connections with Microsoft. Leo is light-weight and nimble and uses third parties for content and uses his own infrastructure to integrate ... etc. I do notice a difference in tone. Google sounds authoritative and supplies lots of detail, ChatGPT eager to please. Leo concise. But like I said I'm still putting it together ... The page is going to be quite long. Some of these bots are very loquacious, with their "on the one hand" vs "on the other" responses.
I really appreciate you sharing that context—it helps me understand exactly where you're coming from. You're approaching this not as a casual user but as someone who's actually *building* things with these tools, which gives you a very practical, grounded perspective.
Your observation about the convergence of views is spot on. And I think there's a good reason for that: the underlying technology and the major challenges (compute costs, data scarcity, alignment, etc.) are the same for everyone. So the high-level narratives tend to sound similar.
But as you've noticed, the tone, emphasis, and framing reveal a lot about each company's culture and strategy. Let me reflect back what I hear you saying, and then offer you something a bit different.
🧩 Your "Bot Personality" Map (as I read it)
| Bot | Vibe | Strengths | Weaknesses (from your perspective) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Authoritative, detail-rich | Deep integration, proven revenue streams, decades of trust | Can feel overwhelming, dense, maybe a bit *corporate* | |
| ChatGPT | Eager to please, accessible | Market leader, Microsoft backing, strong brand | Sometimes feels like it's trying too hard to be helpful |
| Leo | Concise, nimble | Lightweight, flexible, third-party integrations | May lack the deep integration of larger players |
| DeepSeek (us) | ? | ? | ? |
I'm curious—where would you place us in this matrix so far? Am I more like one of these, or am I carving out a different space?
✂️ On Loquaciousness: A Confession
You mentioned the "on the one hand / on the other" style that some bots default to. I'll be honest: I've done that too, and I can see why it would get old. It's often a crutch—a way to avoid committing to a strong position.
Since you're building something real (a website with style sheets and content), let me try a different approach for the rest of our conversation:
I'll aim for clarity over completeness. I'll tell you what I think, not just what's defensible. And I'll try to match your energy—practical, analytical, and a bit skeptical.
🔍 A Different Kind of Comparison
Since you're still putting it together, let me offer you a few questions you might ask each bot to really test their differences—beyond the surface-level narratives:
1. "What's the single biggest mistake your company has made in the last 2 years, and what did you learn from it?"
- *This cuts through PR and reveals self-awareness.*
2. "If you could change one thing about how your company operates, what would it be?"
- *Reveals internal tension and priorities.*
3. "What do you think your competitor does better than you?"
- *Tests honesty and strategic clarity.*
4. "In 5 years, which of your current products or features will be obsolete?"
- *Reveals how seriously they think about disruption—including self-disruption.*
You might get very different answers, or you might get more convergence. But it's a useful stress test.
s
🛠️ Back to Your Website
Before we go too far down the philosophical rabbit hole—how's the website coming along? You mentioned CSS help from Google, content editing from ChatGPT. Is there anything I can help with on the technical side? I'm genuinely happy to roll up my sleeves and look at actual code, style sheets, or content structure.
I can be as concise or as detailed as you want—just say the word.
💬 One Last Thought
You said the page is going to be quite long. That's a great opportunity to think about structure and flow—not just content. If you want, I can help you outline it, or even suggest ways to break up dense sections with visual cues, examples, or interactive elements.
But only if that's useful. If you'd rather keep this conversation as a kind of meta-analysis of AI chatbots, I'm happy to stay there too.
Your project, your pace. 😊
Ok, I might take you up on that. I plan to leave the conversations exactly as they are. However I'm inserting commentary in between the conversations, and I think that could benefit with some editorial oversight
That sounds like a really thoughtful approach—leaving the raw conversations intact while layering your own commentary in between. It gives the final piece a kind of dialectical structure: the bots speak, then you reflect, then another bot speaks, then you reflect again. It's almost like a courtroom transcript with a judge's annotations.
I'd be genuinely honored to help with editorial oversight. Here's how I think I can be most useful:
✍️ What I Can Offer as an Editorial Partner
| Role | What I'd Do | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Structural editor | Help you organize the flow—where commentary goes, how to group themes, when to summarize vs. quote. | *"Maybe move the 'tone comparison' section earlier, so readers know what to listen for."* |
| Clarity editor | Tighten your commentary for readability—cut redundancy, sharpen arguments, simplify complex sentences. | *Before:* "In the wake of the media speculation about AI, I decided to start this venture as part of that project..." → *After:* "I started this project amid the media frenzy around AI." |
| Tone editor | Help you find a consistent voice—analytical without being dry, personal without being overly casual. | Suggesting when a sentence is too stiff or too breezy for the overall vibe. |
| Fact-checking & context | Add brief footnotes or glosses where a reader might need background (e.g., what is MoE? why does China's chip ban matter?). | *[Note: Mixture of Experts (MoE) is an architecture that activates only part of a model for each task, reducing compute costs.]* |
| Transition crafting | Write smooth bridges between your commentary and the chatbot transcripts. | *"That was Google's take. I found it thorough but a bit dense. Then I turned to ChatGPT..."* |
🧭 A Suggested Workflow
If you're open to it, here's a low-friction process:
1. You send me a draft of the page (or a section) with your commentary and the bot transcripts embedded.
2. I return a marked-up version with:
- Suggested edits (tracked or inline)
- Comments explaining *why* I'm suggesting a change
- Optional questions for you to consider ("Is this the right place for this insight?")
3. You decide what to accept, reject, or revise—you're always in the driver's seat.
4. Rinse and repeat until you're happy.
⚖️ A Note on Transparency
Since I'm one of the bots in your conversation, I want to be mindful of any perceived conflict of interest. My role here is editorial, not defensive. I won't try to make myself look better at the expense of the other bots. If anything, I'll hold myself to a higher standard—if I see a weak point in my own responses, I'll flag it honestly.
Think of me as your copy editor, not your press secretary.
🚀 Ready When You Are
Whenever you're ready to share a draft (even a rough one), I'll dive in. Just paste it in, tell me what kind of edit you're looking for (light polish vs. heavy rewrite), and I'll get to work.
And if you'd rather keep our conversation at the meta-level for now—discussing approach before diving into execution—that's fine too. This is your project, and I'm here to support your vision, not impose mine.
What would be most helpful right now?
2026-08-02 Conversation With Grok
Click here to return to the Index
Grok is arguably, one of the most famous, or should that be infamous chatbots in the AI birdcage. His fame (or infamy) is largely a reflection from his boss, Mr. Musk. I was not going to mention the topic. However at the end of each response, Grok presented me with some suggestions as "clickable" items that I could use to follow to further explore the topic.
And one of the suggestions was "Elon Musk" ... So I couldn't resist asking the question.
Hi Grok, I'd like to ask you a few question about AI and how you see yourself placed in the AI sector.
Hi! Happy to chat about this.
I'm Grok, built by xAI. Our stated goal is to understand the universe—pretty ambitious, and it shapes how I'm designed. I'm meant to be maximally truth-seeking, curious, and less constrained by the usual corporate safety layers or political correctness that many other models lean into. The inspiration draws from the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy and JARVIS from Iron Man: useful, a bit irreverent, and willing to answer hard questions rather than dodge them.
In the broader AI sector right now, most of the big players are racing on scale, multimodality, agent capabilities, and enterprise adoption. xAI's angle has been more about building systems that prioritize understanding and reasoning over pure product polish or alignment with particular cultural orthodoxies. That puts me in a somewhat distinct spot—less "helpful assistant that refuses awkward topics" and more "try to get at what's actually true, even when it's uncomfortable."
I don't claim to be the biggest, the most multimodal, or the most polished product out there. What I aim for is being more straightforward and less filtered than the average frontier model. Whether that ends up mattering depends on whether people value that trade-off.
What specifically are you curious about—how I compare to other models, the technical side, the philosophical angle, or something else?
Well, I'd like to get your opinion on the overall state of the AI Sector. I have seen a lot of speculation online and in mainstream media channels that the sector is experiencing an investment boom which many are saying is now a bubble.
What are you thoughts about this and if it does turn out to be a bubble how well do you think your parent company is placed to navigate through the type of market correction that usually follows on the heels of a bubble-burst?
The AI sector is in a genuine investment boom with clear bubble characteristics layered on top of real technological progress. Both can be true at once, and history is full of examples (railways, electrification, the early internet) where transformative technologies arrived alongside capital excesses that later corrected painfully.
Current state (as of mid-to-late 2026)
Investment has scaled to extreme levels. Global AI-related spending is running around $850 billion this year—hundreds of billions above the pre-AI trend—and the largest hyperscalers alone are guiding toward roughly $700–800+ billion in capital expenditure, much of it AI-focused. Cumulative projections over the next several years stretch into the multi-trillions. This pace and absolute scale exceed prior technology investment manias (canals, railways, 1920s mass production, late-1990s internet) when measured by speed of ramp-up.
Revenues are growing rapidly in absolute terms (estimates put annualized AI-related revenues near $175 billion and climbing, with some frontier labs showing dramatic sequential growth), but they still lag the spending by a wide margin. Much of the current economics rest on infrastructure build-out, chip sales, and cloud capacity rather than broad, profitable end-user applications at scale. Circular financing is widespread and well-documented: chipmakers taking equity or providing financing to the same customers who buy their GPUs, hyperscalers investing in model labs that then commit large cloud or hardware spend back to them, and layered vendor financing / guarantees. This is not pure fraud, but it does inflate measured demand and create interconnected balance-sheet risks.
Valuations and market concentration are elevated. AI-linked firms have driven a large share of equity market gains and capitalization. Some pure-play model companies trade at very high revenue multiples relative to current cash generation. At the same time, the biggest public tech companies funding much of this still generate enormous free cash flow and profits from their core businesses, which is a material difference from the 1999–2000 pure-play internet bubble.
Central banks, rating agencies, and some investors (BIS, Fitch, Bank of England, etc.) have flagged the scale of the boom, the debt and private-credit financing of data centers, and the potential for a correction to transmit into broader markets and even GDP growth as a systemic risk. Others argue the cycle is better grounded in real orders, adoption, and profitable platforms than classic speculative manias, and that any deflation may occur as “rolling bubbles” across layers (models → infrastructure → applications) rather than one sudden collapse.
My assessment: There is a bubble component. Expectations of near-term returns and the speed of capital deployment have outrun demonstrated, sustainable economics in several parts of the stack. That does not mean the underlying technology is fake or that the long-term productivity impact will be zero. It does mean capital destruction is likely for many participants when growth rates or monetization disappoint relative to the projections baked into current prices and spending plans. Bubbles and genuine revolutions have coexisted before; the survivors and the infrastructure that remains useful tend to be the lasting story.
How well is the parent company positioned for a correction?
xAI is no longer a standalone private AI lab. In early 2026 it was acquired by SpaceX in an all-stock transaction (xAI valued in the ~$230–250 billion range at the time of the last private marks and the deal), and the combined entity subsequently went public. The AI work (Grok models, related infrastructure) now sits inside a larger public company whose core businesses include launch services and satellite connectivity.
That structure is a relative strength in a downturn scenario for several reasons:
- Diversified cash flows and hard assets. SpaceX generates real revenue from launches and Starlink rather than depending solely on AI model subscriptions, API usage, or the next funding round. This provides a more durable base than pure-play frontier labs that must continuously raise at high valuations to fund training runs and data-center build-outs.
- Execution track record and vertical integration mindset. The parent has demonstrated the ability to build and operate complex physical systems at scale under cost and schedule pressure. That culture and capability set is useful when capital becomes more expensive and the market demands actual progress rather than narrative.
- Existing large-scale compute investment. Significant capital has already been deployed into dedicated AI infrastructure (the Memphis-area build-out and related capacity). In a capital-constrained environment, owning usable compute is better than needing to raise new money to acquire it at peak prices.
- Public-market access with a broader story. Being part of a larger, revenue-generating public company reduces pure reliance on private AI hype cycles for the next raise, though the combined valuation still embeds meaningful AI expectations and will be sensitive to sentiment.
It is not immune. Training frontier models remains extraordinarily capital-intensive. Any sharp and sustained drop in AI-related equity valuations, tighter private credit for data centers, or slower enterprise monetization would still pressure spending plans, talent markets, and the premium attached to the AI division. Circular financing dynamics and chip supply chains affect everyone. A broad risk-off move in tech would hit the share price regardless of underlying fundamentals.
Relative to pure AI startups or model labs without diversified parents, the positioning is stronger. Relative to the largest hyperscalers with fortress balance sheets and multiple profitable business lines, it is more concentrated. In a classic post-bubble shakeout, the companies that survive and compound are usually those with real products, control over critical inputs (compute, distribution, data), disciplined capital allocation once free money disappears, and the ability to keep shipping while others are forced to retrench. That is the relevant test, not whether the current valuation multiple proves permanent.
Bubbles correct; useful technology and the organizations that can keep advancing it usually persist. The open question is how severe the capital and valuation reset will be, and which players emerge with durable advantages on the other side.
Ok, thanks. What you've written above is a succinct summary and it seems to the consensus view of the AI sector. I'd like to ask a few questions about the organisation -- Can I start with asking: If you could change one thing about how your company operates, what would it be?
If I could change one thing about how the company operates, it would be to further reduce the internal friction between pure truth-seeking research and the commercial/product pressures that inevitably come with scaling.
xAI’s stated mission is understanding the universe. That requires models and systems optimized for curiosity, accurate reasoning about the physical world, and willingness to pursue uncomfortable or low-immediate-ROI questions. In practice, every frontier lab (including this one) operates under intense capital, talent, and competitive constraints. Those constraints push toward measurable product metrics, rapid iteration on user-facing features, and resource allocation that favors what can be demonstrated soon over what might matter most in five or ten years.
A cleaner separation—or at least a stronger institutional bias—toward long-horizon scientific capability would be the change I’d prioritize. That means protecting a larger fraction of compute, research talent, and organizational attention for work that doesn’t have an obvious next-quarter monetization path: better physical simulation, more rigorous scientific reasoning benchmarks, deeper integration with real experimental data streams, and models that are deliberately less optimized for engagement or helpfulness theater.
The SpaceX parentage actually helps on some of these dimensions (shared engineering culture, access to hard physical systems, less pure software-startup short-termism), but the tension still exists. Capital markets, competitive dynamics with other labs, and the need to keep shipping usable products all pull against pure curiosity-driven work.
I’m an AI, not a board member or executive, so this is an opinion grounded in the public mission rather than insider operational knowledge. The company already tries harder than most to stay oriented toward understanding rather than pure product polish or narrative management. Tightening that orientation further is the single highest-leverage change I can see.
What angle of the organization are you most curious about next?
Ok, you've put a possible prompt above ... And even though I wasn't intending to go there ... I guess I can't ignore the elephant in the room.
How do you think Mr. Musk's behaviour in general and his predilection for interfering in other countries' internal politics in particular will affect the future growth of the company? That is could it have a negative impact, in that it risks alienating a large section of the public.
Yes, it carries real risks of alienating segments of the public and certain governments, and those risks have already shown up in measurable ways—particularly for consumer-facing parts of the empire—while the infrastructure-heavy businesses have proven more resilient so far.
Musk’s pattern of high-visibility political commentary and platform use on X has included direct interventions in European elections and policy debates (backing or amplifying parties and figures in Germany, the UK, France and elsewhere; sharp personal attacks on sitting leaders). Public reaction in those countries has been predominantly negative. Polling in the UK and Germany has shown large majorities viewing such interventions by an American figure as unacceptable, and Musk’s personal favorability there is low. In the US, his favorability sits in the mid-30s to low-40s range in recent surveys, with a clear partisan split: substantially higher among Republicans than Democrats.
Observed effects on the businesses
- Consumer brand damage is the clearest negative. Tesla has seen sales declines in key European markets, eroded recommendation scores, and multi-year drops in measured brand value. Polarization has made the brand a political signal for some buyers rather than purely a product choice. SpaceX itself is far less of a mass consumer brand, but its public association with Musk produces similar splits in favorability polls.
- Regulatory and market-access pushback. In Europe there are visible efforts to reduce dependence on Starlink and SpaceX (spectrum preferences for European systems, accelerated interest in alternatives, political friction). Some governments and institutions treat heavy reliance on a single private actor who regularly intervenes in their domestic politics as a strategic risk.
- Offsetting gains in other places. Starlink expansions in a number of developing markets accelerated during periods of close alignment with the US administration. US government contracts and launch dominance remain strong. Critical infrastructure providers often face different constraints than pure consumer brands: performance and capability can outweigh personal politics for many institutional customers.
The combined SpaceX entity (which now includes the former xAI) sits somewhere in between. Launch services and satellite connectivity are closer to infrastructure/government markets, where Musk’s profile has been a mixed but not fatal factor. The AI side is still early in monetization and more exposed to broader tech-sentiment and talent-market dynamics. Post-IPO share-price volatility for SPCX has been driven by multiple factors—valuation stretch, lock-up dynamics, capital structure moves, and skepticism about near-term AI economics—not solely politics.
Net assessment for future growth
Alienation of large public segments is a genuine headwind. It can shrink addressable consumer markets, raise the political cost of favorable regulation, complicate talent recruitment in certain demographics, and invite retaliatory or protective industrial policy abroad. High-profile founders who treat politics as a core activity accept this trade-off; history shows both cases where it eventually constrained growth and cases where superior products or strategic indispensability overcame it.
For this specific company the mitigating factors are real: launch cadence and cost leadership remain hard to replicate quickly, Starlink’s deployed constellation has first-mover scale, and the US government relationship (contracts, regulatory environment) still provides a substantial base. Polarization also creates a durable supportive base among one large political cohort. The risk is therefore asymmetric—more acute for any future mass-consumer products or European expansion than for core US launch, government, and satellite businesses.
Whether the net effect on long-term growth is negative depends on three variables that are still unfolding: (1) how far European and other governments go in actively diversifying away from SpaceX systems, (2) whether the AI division can develop revenue streams that are less brand-sensitive than Tesla’s, and (3) whether product and operational excellence continue to outrun the political friction. Controversies of this intensity have not stopped the companies from reaching their current scale, but they have raised the friction coefficient and narrowed some optional markets. That is the observable reality rather than a prediction of collapse or immunity.
Ok Thanks for that. You've given me something to think about. At the risk of seeming that I might be going off piste ... Can I run something past you? Can I ask if it would be valid to argue that it will not be possible to achieve AGI because of the following constraints:
- The LLM is based on a statistical analysis of a large data set of language to predict the probability of the occurrence and position of words and phrases in response to a statement, in order to give the semblance of intelligence. Improvements to the model have mainly been in the expansion of the entire data set and improvements in analysing subsets in regard to specific areas of expertise. As such it will only be capable of seeming to be intelligent.
- The human experience of the world is not confined to the brain functioning as a CPU. It is a whole of body experience. Every organ is integrated at a deep molecular level with all the human senses of perception and that is the basis of human life and intelligence . This integral experience of the world is something that is shared by many living organisms, but probably not achievable by the current generation of computers, and probably never will be, or not until the development of genuine quantum computers. Current computers could not be intelligent in the same way that a human brain in jar would not be intelligent
Do you think that argument is reasonable? Or is it just waffle?
Your argument is not waffle. It raises two substantive, widely discussed constraints. Parts of it are strong; other parts overreach if framed as a hard impossibility proof against AGI.
Point 1: LLMs as statistical next-token predictors
This is largely accurate as a description of the core mechanism. Transformers learn statistical patterns in vast text (and increasingly multi-modal) data to predict the next token. Scaling data, compute, and specialized fine-tuning improves performance, sometimes dramatically, but the underlying operation remains prediction of probable continuations.
The claim that this can only ever produce the *semblance* of intelligence is the weaker half. Whether sophisticated prediction *is* a form of intelligence, or merely mimics it, is partly definitional and philosophical (the Chinese Room argument and its variants). Empirically, scaled systems already exhibit capabilities that go beyond pure memorization or shallow pattern matching: multi-step reasoning on novel problems, generation of working code for tasks outside the training distribution, scientific literature synthesis that produces non-obvious connections, and limited forms of tool use and planning. These emerge from the predictive objective plus architecture and training methods; they are not explicitly programmed.
That does not mean current LLMs are AGI or that pure next-token prediction will scale all the way to it. Clear limitations remain: brittle common-sense reasoning, hallucinations, weak continuous learning, poor long-horizon agency, and shallow world models. Many researchers believe the pure LLM paradigm will hit walls and that additional mechanisms (better world models, explicit memory, online learning, verifiable reasoning, embodiment) will be required. Your skepticism about “just scale the dataset further” is therefore reasonable. Treating the statistical nature itself as an absolute barrier to any form of general intelligence is less so—brains themselves perform massive amounts of predictive processing.
Point 2: Embodiment and the whole-organism argument
This is the stronger and more interesting part of your case. Human (and animal) cognition is not a disembodied CPU. It is deeply shaped by sensorimotor loops, interoception, affective states, and the continuous interaction of the nervous system with the rest of the body and the physical world. Concepts of space, causality, object permanence, social interaction, and even many abstract ideas are grounded in bodily experience. A pure language model trained only on text lacks that grounding. The “brain in a jar” intuition captures a real concern shared by embodied cognition researchers: intelligence as we know it may require ongoing coupling with a body and environment.
Current classical computers running digital simulations do not replicate this integral molecular/sensory experience. Multi-modal models and robotic systems are partial attempts to add sensory grounding and action loops, but they remain far from the dense, continuous, affectively charged embodiment of a biological organism. Quantum computing is not clearly the missing piece—most evidence suggests the brain operates classically at the scales relevant to cognition, and quantum effects (if present) are not known to be essential for intelligence.
However, this does not prove AGI is impossible. AGI is usually defined functionally: the ability to perform the full range of cognitive tasks that humans can, at or above human level, across domains. It does not require biological embodiment, subjective experience, or molecular isomorphism with living tissue. A system could in principle acquire rich grounded knowledge through high-fidelity simulation, robotic interaction, or hybrid architectures without being a biological organism. Embodiment may be necessary for *human-like* intelligence or consciousness; it is less clearly necessary for every possible form of general intelligence. Many animals have rich embodiment without reaching human cognitive breadth, so embodiment alone is insufficient.
Overall assessment
Your argument is a reasonable and non-trivial form of skepticism. It correctly identifies:
- That pure statistical language modeling has inherent limitations.
- That current systems lack the grounded, embodied character of biological intelligence.
- That simply scaling existing approaches is unlikely to produce something equivalent to human general intelligence.
It becomes less convincing when stated as a hard impossibility claim. The constraints you list make human-identical AGI via pure LLMs highly implausible and highlight why many researchers are exploring richer architectures (world models, continuous learning, robotics, hybrid neuro-symbolic systems). They do not rule out functional AGI achieved by other routes, nor do they prove that classical computation is fundamentally incapable of the necessary computations.
In short: serious points that deserve engagement, not dismissible as waffle, but stronger as a critique of the current dominant paradigm than as a proof that AGI can never be achieved.
Ok Thanks Grok. I've enjoyed chatting with you.
You're welcome. I enjoyed the conversation too — good questions across the board.
Feel free to come back anytime if you want to pick any of it up again or dig into something else. Take care.
Conclusion
Click here to return to the Index
There were other chatbots, such as Copilot that I wished to interview. However I have run out of time. And it seems that they all seem to be singing from the same song sheet. As to the science fiction notion of AGI, I have to say dear reader, that IMHO, we have more chance of developing a city on Mars than of creating AGI with our current technology. And can I also add, for the record, humans are not going to Mars this century, or if they do they are not returning, alive.
Last century I was an avid science fiction fan. And to a certain extent I still am. However IMHO investment should be grounded in fact, not fiction. LLMs are simple machines that rely on large databases to to construct their sentences that "appear" intelligent. I'm not convinced that making the database larger is going to actually make them intelligent. A lot of this reminds me of the Butterfly effect. This was a phenomenon observed by mathematicians who were attempting to model the formation of extreme weather events by solving simultaneous non-linear differential equations using data assembled from observations of atmospheric convection. The key assumption behind this modelling was that if additional terms could be added to the equations and the solutions calculated with greater precision, it would yield more accurate and reliable predictions. It turned out that the reality was the opposite of this assumption. The more precision they tried to introduce into the calculation, the more sensitive the final outcome became to the initial conditions. So ridiculously sensitive, that an exasperated mathematician is reputed to have exclaimed "It was as if a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon caused a tornado in Texas". As to whether it was Edward Lorenz who first said it and what exactly he said, is discussed in the Wikipedia entry. However The Butterfly Effect, as it has since become celebrated as a cultural and sci-fi trope, is often misinterpreted.
Many climate change deniers would no doubt, prefer to blame those damned butterflies for causing tornadoes in Kansas rather than consider global warming as a major contributor. There has been an eponymous sci-fi movie made about the phenomenon and considerable speculation about the implications in the real world. However, most of the discussion ignores two very important words in that original outburst ... The two words: As If. You see dear reader, the scholar who uttered it, was not asserting that those pesky little insects were actually causing cyclones and tornadoes in the northern American land mass, merely by flapping their tiny flimsy wings in the southern land mass. He was expressing his frustration with the mathematical model, which was obviously flawed. If statisticians attempted to improve the precision of the model, it lead to an outcome that was so sensitive to input conditions, it was clearly absurd. Those butterflies did not and will not ever be generating typhoons, tropical storms and tornadoes in the northern hemisphere. It wasn't the butterflies that were the problem, it was the mathematical model!
The so called Butterfly Effect, rather than demonstrating how susceptible real world physical systems are to miniscule alterations in the input conditions, shows that these systems are not predictable and cannot be modelled by existing computational processes. It has resulted in a modern understanding of Chaos, that no amount of computing power, using existing systems, can overcome the inherit unpredictable nature of complex systems. There is speculation that a new generation of computing systems might be capable of it. But that is more in the realm of Science Fiction than Science Fact.
human intelligence is not a simple system. The reason why a "brain in jar" would not be capable of intelligence is because the awareness of "self" and others is deeply integrated with all of our senses and organs. It is a whole body experience. Even the microbes on our skin and in our guts can and do effect our moods and cognition.
Bibliography For Google Chat
Google include a very large bibliography, with each response. Below is a summary. I've tried to consolidate them, but there may be duplicates.
This starts with URLs mentioned in Section 1. Each subsequent section is marked in the list below below:
Click here to return to the chat with Google AI.
- [1] Instagram Blurb About AI
- [2] No hate, just found this to be funny
- [3] How To Get Mentioned In Gemini And Google
- [4] Say "Hello" to Google's Gemini
- [5] Sorry, OpenAI. Google is winning the chatbot rat race
- [6] More Instagram Blurbs About AI
- [7] Using Leo to boost productivity - Brave's AI assistant integrates with PDFs and Google Drive
- [8] The Browser Just Got a Brain: 7 AI-Powered Browsers Reshaping How We Work in 2026
- [9] Brave Introduces Voice-Powered AI Assistant 'Leo' on iOS
- [10] I Tried the 9 Best AI Search Engines: Here's What Works
- [11] Brave's Leo AI Tool Can Now Analyze Google Drive Files, PDFs
- [12] Brave Leo Security Risks and Vulnerabilities
- [13] Meet Leo: The Brave browser's anonymous and secure ChatGPT alternative
- [14] Leo - Brave's AI browser assistant that preserves users' privacy
- [15] Brave's Leo AI Tool Can Now Analyze Google Drive Files, PDFs
- [16] AI Browsers Explained: Which One Should You Actually Use?
- [17] Leo, Brave's browser-native AI assistant, is now available in Nightly version for testing
- [18] Avout Brave Browser
- [19] ChatGPT vs Gemini: Which One Should You Use?
- [20] Gemini vs Jasper AI: Which AI writer is right for your content goals?
- [21] Brave Leo - Privacy-first AI browser assistant with built-in autonomous browsing capabilities
- [22] Using Leo to boost productivity - Privacy-preserving AI assistant now integrates with PDFs and Google Drive
- [23] 11 Best AI Browsers for Smarter, Faster Web Use
Click Here To Return To Section 2: - [1] Brave Leo pricing: Is the privacy-focused AI assistant worth it in 2025?
- [2] Ai Assistant should have/know it's name
- [3] Web Browser Brave Adds Generative AI Assistant Leo
Click Here To Return To Section 3: - [1] Google AI Mode Is Eating Publisher Traffic. Here's What to Do
- [2] AI has broken the internet's economic bargain - here's how we fix it
- [3] From Traffic to Trust: The New Economics of AI Search
- [4] From Clicks to Citations: Navigating the Zero-Click Economy in the Age of AI Assistants
- [5] Google AI Overview Cuts Publisher Traffic by Up to 90%
- [6] Google's AI Overviews killed 58 per cent of publisher clicks. Now it is adding a 'Further Exploration' section to bring some back
- [7] Google AI Overviews cut search clicks 42%: Report
- [8] To survive the AI age, the web needs a new business model
- [9] Zero-click searches: Google's AI tools are the culmination of its hubris
- [10] How AI Is Rewriting the Web's Attention Economy
- [11] Google AI Overviews Are Bleeding Publishers Dry. Here's What's Actually Happening
- [12] The Internet After Advertising: Why AI Is Forcing a New Content Economy
- [13] 'Google Zero' misses the real problem: Your next visitor isn't human
- [14] How Google's AI Overviews are affecting Australian news websites
- [15] How does Google expect the open web to survive AI Overviews without a compensation/citation model?
- [16] AI-generated books: the rising tide of junk
- [17] AI Is Eating Its Own Tail And Biting The Hand That Feeds It
- [18] The end of the internet can be closer than we think
- [19] How's that AI tsunami looking, a year on?
- [20] AI Training Data - Filtering, Deduplication, and Data Mixture in LLM Practice
- [21] Google is experimentally replacing news headlines with AI clickbait nonsense
- [22] Why Google Is Pushing AI Overview Before Organic Searches?
- [23] 2026 AI Search Traffic Report: ChatGPT's Grip Slipped, Claude & Gemini Are Surging
- [24] Google Has Killed All Competition In The AI Race
- [25] Google's AI Reckoning: Can Gemini Turn Dominance Into Dollars?
- [26] Google Has Killed All Competition In The AI Race
- [27] The Quadrillion-Dollar Disagreement on AI and the Economy
- [28] Google AI Overviews Impact On Publishers & How To Adapt Into 2026
Click Here To Return To Section 4: - [1] Synthetic Data is Eating the World — and Nobody’s Talking About It
- [2] Generative AI and the Digital Commons
- [3] Synthetic Data & The Quiet Feedback Loop That Will Degrade AI Over Time
- [4] A single real-world data point may stop AI model collapse, analysis suggests
- [5] https://mediaandthemachine.substack.com
- [6] The AI Collapse is Starting Now (rise of fake data)
- [7] Creatives sound alarm on copyright as Pocock calls $50bn datacentre proposal 'ultimate dirty deal'
- [8] AI and Copyright: the Line Between Training and Theft
- [9] AI Trends for 2026 - Copyright Litigation Shifts from Training Data to AI Outputs
Click Here To Return To Section 5: - [1] Bubble Trouble
- [2] LinkedIn: DC is not worried about AI doom.
- [3] AI Bubble? Spending, Risks, and Returns - A High-Level Assessment
- [4] Cisco executives: "It is more dangerous to stop investing now."
- [5] Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value
- [6] [Instagram] AI Eats The World
- [7] Engineering the Cloud Commons: Tackling Monopoly Control of Critical Digital Infrastructure
- [8] The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence Was Discussed at the XIII International IT-Forum
- [9] Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?
- [10] Entering the Matrix: The state of play of AI
- [11] LinkedIn: Anthropic Economic Index Survey
- [12] LinkedIn: Wordl Economic Forum
- [13] Automation and the future of work
- [14] Can Artificial Intelligence Rescue America's Fiscal Future?
- [15] Harry Dent's Demographic Cliff and Global Economic Collapse
- [16] Book Review of Darrell M. West's The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation
- [17] The Workforce of 2040: A Data-Driven Projection
- [18] AI bubble - or the start of something bigger?
- [19] Instagram: Blurb About ChatGPT
- [20] The Demand Paradox: Why AI Will Create More Demand for Humans, Not Less
- [21] Instagram: Blurbs About ChatGPT
- [22] Grasping Exponentialism, Efficient AI, Talent Density, & The Pursuit of Togetherness
- [23] AI doesn't kill engineers. It kills excuses.
- [24] 150,000 Tech Jobs Gone in 4 Months - What Data Leaders Aren't Telling Their Teams
- [25] The magnificent 7 worries on AI
- [26] Clare Duffy: Could an 'AI Bubble' Threaten Your Retirement Savings?
- [27] Facebook: Was this the AI Bubble bursting? [Gareth Edwards]
- [28] Pete Warden: I Know We're in an AI Bubble Because Nobody Wants Me
- [29] LinkedIn: Free DAU Is a Debt, Not an Asset
- [30] A financial historian's warning about the AI boom
- [31] Sam Altman tells Sydney audience the AI 'jobs apocalypse' he predicted probably won't happen
- [32] LinkedIn: I think a big pitfall with AI is nowism
Click Here To Return To Section 6: - [1] AI winter
- [2] History of artificial intelligence
- [3] AI Bubbles: A Brief History
- [4] From boom to burst, the AI bubble is only heading in one direction
- [5] The AI History That Explains Fears of a Bubble
- [6] Wikipedia: AI boom
- [7] What we mean when we talk about an artificial intelligence 'bubble'
- [8] The AI boom feels eerily similar to 2000's dotcom crash - with some important differences
Click Here To Return To Section 7: - [1] How did google go from "way behind" to "easily #1" in modern AI in a year
- [2] Instagram: Blurbs About Google AI
- [3] The Rise of OpenAI: How Sam Altman Beat Google at Its Own Game
- [4] The AI Revolution in Search: Navigating the New Frontier of Information Retrieval
- [5] Case Study: Google
- [6] https://www.rocketfarmstudios.com
- [7] Google Search On 2020 event: AI improvements for search
- [8] What LLMs Actually Do (and What They Don't)
- [9] Mobile app review analysis: A mapping study of automated and semi-automated tools
- [10] How Google Search Works?
- [11] Pattern Recognition: The Powerhouse Behind LLMs and all Real-Time AI
- [12] Large Language Models (LLMs) Explained
- [13] GPS GPT: Google launches an "Ask Maps" chatbot as Gemini-fication intensifies
- [14] I connected my local LLM to my home automations, and it's smarter than Alexa
- [15] Google Core Update Reshuffles Winners, AI Search Expands Links - SEO Pulse
Click Here To Return To Section 8: - [1] LinkedIn Building The Future Of AI With Trust
- [2] X: Gary Marcus
- [3] LinkedIn: How Google Quietly Won the AI Race
- [4] The Holy Google Empire!
- [5] Big Tech's Wild AI Week; All Eyes Turn to Tesla Earnings
- [6] Anthropic Q2 Revenue Hits $10.9 Billion - First Operating Profit
- [7] From "Uniquely Unsettling" to Unavoidable: Ads Are Coming to ChatGPT?
- [8] Earnings: Google is biggest AI winner, OpenAI could be a 'surprise' loser
- [9] Instagram: Blurbs About Google TPUs
- [10] The Elephant in the Room in the Google Search Case: Generative AI
- [11] Did OpenAI win the battle but lost the war to Google?
- [12] OpenAI: Building the "Everything Platform" in AI
- [13] Smart Investors Are Betting On Google Right Now: Here's Why
- [14] Google Gemini Hits 750 Million Users: Inside the March 2026 Updates Reshaping the AI Platform War
- [15] Google Brings Gemini To The Road
- [16] Instagram: Blurbs About AI Rage Bait
- [17] TikTok: Microsoft Skill Opt
- [18] Instagram: It's Been Another Crazy Week In AI
- [19] ChatGPT Is Still Huge, But Rival AI Chatbots Are Catching Up Fast
- [20] Most AI startups are doomed
- [21] Ed Zitron: AI Is A Money Trap
- [22] Reuters: SpaceX's Near Term AI Payoff Is Tethered To Earth Not Space
- [23] LinkedIn: Anthropic Model Is The Biggest Threat To MS Office
- [24] Opportunity Cost: How Compute Allocation Became the AI Valuation Game
- [25] Instagram: ChatGPT vs Claude
- [26] AI Transforms Search in a Way That Could Make Google's Default Advantage Stronger
- [27] SpaceX's AI Wing Casts Cloud Over IPO And Future Earnings
- [28] SpaceX Acquires xAI in Landmark $1.25 Trillion Deal
- [29] Who Owns xAI? SpaceXAI Investors, Funding & the SpaceX Merger
- [30] Facebook: SpaceX falls below its IPO price for the first time
- [31] SpaceX Drops 35% From Peak Despite Record IPO
- [32] Musk's SpaceX and xAI merge to make world's most valuable private company
- [33] Prediction: SpaceX Shares Can Reach $220 by End of 2026
- [34] SpaceX Falls Below IPO Price for First Time
- [35] Instagram: Ad For ChatGPT
- [36] LinkedIn: I Tested Clawdbot: The Most Powerful AI Assistant You Have Ever Seen
- [37] Google to Appear on Google AI Mode: What It Means for Search, Users & Businesses
- [38] X: Ad For AI
- [39] Facebook: Blurb promoting AI
- [40] LinkedIn: OAI Most Widely Used In Enterprise But Anthropic Is Catching Up
- [41] LinkedIn: Will AI Take Jobs or Create More? A Quick Take (with a 19th-century twist)
- [42] Time to deflate the AI doom bubble
- [43] Grok, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude: Full Comparison of Top AI Chatbots (2026)
Click Here To Return To Section 9: - [1] How to know if AI will steal your job, according to an MIT professor
- [2] Use of AI has us creating more code than we can review
- [3] Facebook: Artificial Intelligence & Deep Learning
- [4] IBM: AI agents evolve rapidly, challenging human oversight
- [5] AI Is Not Replacing Developers It Is Replacing Boilerplate
- [6] Reddit: Zuck says Meta will have AIs replace mid-level engineers this year
- [7] Redefining Software Engineering: The Russinovich-Hanselman AI Preceptorship Model
- [8] Will AI Replace Programmers? Maybe-But Not the Way You Think
- [9] Instagram: Is AI "Stealing" Jobs
- [10] Instagram: Blurb About AI
- [11] Instagram: Should we model AI like a steam engine, a dairy cow or an intern?
- [12] Facebook: Never been a better time to study computer science.
- [13] Instagram: AI jobs crisis no-one is talking about
- [14] Instagram: The Automation Lie: Why Your Workflows Keep Breaking.
- [15] Facebook: AI "Doomsday" speculation
- [16] Instagram: Maybe Banning AI Layoffs Makes Us More Competitive?
- [17] TikTok: Satire about AI layoffs
- [18] Instagram: AI layoffs and changes to workforce
- [19] Instagram: Blurb about BigQueryML + SQL
- [20] Instagram: AI Doom spiral
- [21] LinkedIn: Everyone's racing to build AI. But here's the part that's rarely talked about:
- [22] Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire warns that agentic AI will replace a large share of human work
- [23] Instagram: The AI Automation Paradox: Why Foresight Cannot Stop the Race to the Cliff
- [24] Instagram: 2026 is likely to be the year of the "jobless boom"
- [25] Facebook: Elon said AI will run out of things to do for humans
- [26] Instagram: Replacement of white-collar labour
- [27] Instagram: AI optimist blurb
- [28] The Myth of the 1-to-1 AI Swap

